3/30/2016

HUKOU, China miracle and Globalization

Spanish


Du Runsheng: "For two decades since 1980 there has been almost no real increase in wages of rural migrant workers (Nong Gong Min) in coastal areas despite the rapid growth of China as a major economic linchpin of the global economy" 

David Coates (theoretical netizen new capitalism): "Modern globalization is a process based less on the proliferation of computers than in the proliferation of proletarians" 

Kam Wing Chan: "Alarmingly, the gap between the total population living in cities and the number of those with urban residence registration (urban Hukou) has increased as the country progressed. That gap represents the expansion of many people living in the city but not belonging to the city (Nong Min Gong)"

There are an estimated 274 million rural migrant workers in China, representing more than one third of the working population. Migrant workers have been the engine of spectacular economic growth in China over the past three decades.

Migrant rural workers - Nong Min Gong -, are workers with a rural Hukou (household registration) who are employed in a place of urban work. However, many of them have not even been born in rural areas. Many have grown or even born in the city but according to the Hukou system they retain the stigma of Nong Min Gong from their parents.

Chinese State and multinational capital have contributed to keeping this great mass of proletarians as marginalized persons subject to institutionalized discrimination, as if they were undocumented foreigners in their own country.

Chinese capitalism has created a system of production relations that is more efficient and brutal than most. The formidable escalation of China as the most competitive industrial power in the world, has been largely achieved thanks to a highly efficient exploitation of labor that would have been impossible without the Hukou system.

Unlike Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China welcomed foreign direct investment with open arms, and capital began flowing into the country on a huge scale. With China's entry into the WTO in 2001, all companies were forced to reduce labor costs and social security contributions. The restructuring sealed the fate of hundreds of millions of farmers converted into the proletarians of globalization. The Hukou system would be refined to keep hundreds of millions of workers in absolute marginalization. The fuel of the China industrial revolution and neoliberal globalization has name: Nong Gong Min.



However, although the total number of Nong Min Gong has increased steadily over the past decades, the growth rate has declined significantly over the past five years (from 5.5% in 2010 to just 1.9% in 2014) as a result of their marginalization and growing rural poverty. The Nong Gong Min have no ability to self-reproduce.

And apparently, in the same way that there was a direct relationship between high rates of economic growth and the growth of Nong Min Gong, also seems to be a direct link between the Chinese loss of competitiveness (and economic slowdown)  and the exhaustion of Nong Min Gong suplay.



According to a weighted index that includes 7 key growth sectors (synthetic index), Chinese GDP, not only does not grow at the pace announce by Chinese state institutions but in 2015 it has been negative. That is, the Chinese giant has entered recession.

Hukou


International capital and Chinese state have worked closely together to transform hundreds of millions of Chinese peasants in flexible, submissive, redundant and cheap proletariat, at a speed and on a scale unprecedented in world history. The resounding success of 'made in China "over the last two decades is the story of rural migrant workers exploited by a below subsistence wage to produce at the lowest price. The "China price"

From maoist Hukou to capitalist Hukou



The current system is a capitalist adaptation of the Hukou of  the Maoist era. The Hukou is a kind of family book or residence documentation. Originally the system was attempting to fix the rural population in their villages to avoid the cities overpopulation. Any inhabitant of a city without urban Hukou was immediately expedited by the authorities to their village of residence.

Broadly speaking, the history of the Hukou system can be conceptualized in three stages.

1. Records of residence had been used by the Chinese authorities for thousands of years to manage taxes and controlling migration. The origins of the Hukou system were in the registration system of the population (baojia) that began in the eleventh century. Its main objectives were compliance with the law and civilian control. Each BAO included ten JIAS, while each Jia brought together ten households. The Bao and Jia chiefs were responsible of local law enforcement, taxation, security and civil works. In more modern times, the population register was also used by the Kuomintang and the Japanese in the occupied areas.

2. The Hukou was formally introduced by the communist government in 1958 in response to the shortage of cereals, whose cause was attributed to rural-urban migration. The system was designed to facilitate three main programs: government welfare and resource distribution, internal migration control, and criminal surveillance. Every town and city issued its own internal passport or Hukou, giving residents access to welfare services in that jurisdiction. The Hukou was hereditary so children whose parents had a rural Hukou also had a rural Hukou no matter where they were born.

Between 1950 and 1970 the Communist Party used Hukou registration to implement the agricultural collectivism in rural areas of China, while it was rapidly industrializing urban China. Farmers had to sell their cereals and other crops at low prices to the state, which it rationed to urban workers. The peasant migration to the cities was tightly controlled by the Hukou system. Yet there was a considerable increase in urban population. The Communist Party responded by initiating several campaigns of relocation of urban workers who were sent to develop sparsely populated rural areas.


3. The transformation of the maoists Hukou to capitalist Hukou  began in 1985 when a new system of temporary residence permits introduced by the Ministry of Public Security was established. This allowed the rural Hukou holders to migrate to urban areas without having to formalize a previous employment contract which was required under the previous system. And so it began what is often described as one of the biggest human migrations of all time, as millions of young men and women from the countryside filled factories and construction sites under construction in the coastal cities of China. In many cities, such as Shenzhen and Dongguan, the population of migrant workers quickly outgrew the local urban population.

The Hukou has undergone a series of reforms or improvements to suit the precise needs of the industry. It has evolved into a finely tuned system of discrimination and institutional control. Reforms decentralized the Hukou to local governments to improve and better adapt the system to the interests of transnational capital investment. The improved Hukou system has been the linchpin of the enormous profits of Appel, Cisco, IBM, HP, Samsung, Adidas, Toyota, Microsoft, etc.

In Shenzhen, the Hukou system is specially designed to maintain absolute control of labor. When Nong Min Gong  are hired by companies they must be registered by the local labor office as temporary workers, after payment of a fee to the city. Companies must obtaine from the Public Security Bureau a certificate of temporary residence registration, and they must notify to the Local Police Office the registering of a temporary hukou. The temporary residence is only for one year and must be renewed annually.

In many cities, the rich or educated migrants can easily convert their residence Hukou. Since the mid-1990s, some local governments have the ability to sell local Hukou  to investors. In some cities it was possible to obtain a local Hukou buying a property from a certain value. Like everything in China, this discriminatory practice has been dubbed "talent exchange and investment for a Hukou" and is generalizing across China.

Some cities issue "blue stamp" Hukou (to distinguish from the official red stamp Hukou), a kind of transient urban Hukou  that needs special qualifications (entry conditions) in order to allow the entry of precise groups of people, a kind quasi-urban Hukou entitling to a sort of partial citizenship.

In Beijing, there is a "very competitive" Hukou system, which includes no less than eighteen different categories of transfer of Hukou based on what the applicant can offer to the city (workers in the field of science and technology, students returning after studying abroad, financial, experts, etc.)

In Shanghai, there are four types of cards that target different groups of migrants and grant different privileges. The "talent residence permit" is designed to attract highly skilled and educated professionals. There is a second type of card for foreigners or "overseas Chinese" working in Shanghai, while the third is for migrants who have a permanent job or running a local business and have a current address. For immigrants who do not meet the above criteria are given a renewable "temporary residence card" (Linshi juzhu Zheng)  issued from time to time, that usually grant legal residence for a period of six months and gives access to minimum social services.

Nong Min Gong



Nong Min Gong  (rural migrant worker) has a specific meaning in China; It refers to urban workers with rural Hukou. Although these workers are working in urban jobs legally they are not considered urban workers. The category of Nong Min Gong is not temporary but permanent and discriminatory. As "rural" they have not right to "urban" social services (education of their children, pensions, unemployment help, public housing, public health, disability insurance, etc.)  and any rights that are available for other urban residents. In legal terms, the Nong Min Gong are treated as part (or as an extension) of the population with rural Hukou, despite working and living in urban areas during most of the year, often for many years. They have to endure all kinds of discrimination, including discrimination in employment, wage discrimination, discrimination in social services, discrimination in education, etc.

 

Such social isolation drives to social discrimination. They are blamed as invaders and a long list of problems (responsible for traffic jams, high population density and crime in general) are attributed to them. The stereotype of Nong Min Gong is that they are "uneducated, ignorant, dirty and prone to crime".

The weight of the Nong Min Gong in Chinese economy is huge. They represent 79.8% of all  employed in urban construction, 68.2% of jobs in electronics manufacturing and 58% of the workers of the restoration sector.

The Nong Min Gong are the quintessence of job insecurity


 


Being Chinese the law consider them immigrants in their own country. But unlike immigrants in Europe or the US, they are treated without ateny contemplations since they are supposed a category of "tourists" temporarily in the city where they work. That is, they are undocumented workers in their own country. They have no right to housing since it is supposed they already have permanent residence in their village. They are always living "provisionally" in crowded dormitories  in the same factories or buildings where they work or in rental buildings. They can not educate their children as they are supposed to already have school places in their villages of origin, etc. In fact, the Hukou system divides Chinese society  into two classes. Few urban residents socialize with Nong Min Gong  (the term is pejorative) and intermarriage are considered unwise.

The Nong Min Gong are the quintessence of labor flexibility


They have no right to compensation , unemployment benefits, to severances insurance, sickness insurance, public health, etc. Their low wages are always below the subsistence level since it is assumed that their subsistence and reproduction takes place in their home villages.

When the financial crisis broke in 2008, export centers experienced a nosedive. This was accompanied by mass layoffs, widespread arrears or unpaid wages and factory closures. In late 2008, more than 62,000 factories in Guangdong province had closed and 26 million Nong Min Gong  were fired and forced by urban authorities to return to their villages of origin.


The Nong Min Gong are the quintessence of labor submission


 As a "paperless" they must avoid any conflict with their bosses to avoid being deported back to their home villages. Public discourse often refers to migrant workers as people who deviate from the "norm" and therefore need to be corrected and educated.

Political and social control and Custody Laws and Repatriation


 The Hukou system is also a sophisticated instrument of social and political control since it allows tracking people who are politically dubious to party standards. Technology has made it easier to apply the Hukou system because now the police have a national database of Hukou official records . This has been possible thanks to the computerization of the 1990s, as well as greater cooperation between the different regional police authorities.



In Shanghai and Shenzhen a new temporary residence card as mandatory identification  for all migrants to stay in Guangdong for more than a month was adopted in 2006. The card, which is the size of a credit card contains a chip that stores personal information of the subject, including the employment status, credit history, criminal records and even family planning folder. The system has spread to most Chinese cities.

In 2002, more than 30,000 police stations in the country had computerized the Hukou management and the Hukou records of 650 million people could be consulted through a single national computer network.

Based on the files of Hukou, police maintains a confidential list of suspected persons  (Zhongdian renkou 重点 人口) in each community (usually about five percent of the total population of the community) that are specially monitored and controlled.

Random and humiliating checks of identity documents in the street, especially near railway stations, or after midnight in residential units migrants, and detention and forced repatriation of people without permits, is a common police practice. Eventually though the raids are still done on a regular basis, they are done more discreetly in big cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Wuhan, and in the smaller cities of the Pearl River Delta.

Undocumented migrants who are caught can be "fined, undergo a period of detention, be subject to forced repatriation, criminal prosecution and even prison sentences.

There was a set of laws on "Custody and Repatriation" establishing detention centers in different cities for the custody and repatriation of illegal immigrants Nong Gong Min. The administrative procedure of Custody and Repatriation was established in 1982. Under this procedure the police could detain any Chinese citizen without a residence permit (Hukou) or temporary housing permit  (Zanzhu Zheng) in a Custody and Repatriation Center, and return them forcibly to their place of origin. Conditions in Custody and Repatriation Centers were often worse than prisons or reeducation camps (including beatings and prolonged detentions without trial). Sometimes the police used the system to kidnap Nong Min Gong and extort their families arguing maintenance and repatriation expenses. The system was abolished in 2003 after the death of Sun Zhigang, a migrant worker who died of mistreatment during his detention in the Custody and Repatriation Center of Guangzhou. Sun Zhigang, the victim of 27 years turned out to be a college graduate from the University of Science and Technology, Wuhan and his case sparked a huge viral campaign on social networks (that would be the last), hence the gesture of the Chinese authorities.

Absence of contracts or temporary contracts


In thirty years of annual GDP growth averaging 10%, all employment growth has been outside the formal sector, which means that an increasing percentage of Chinese workers are not covered by the country labor laws, and their wages , benefits and working conditions are not caught by the Chinese official labor statistics. (Misleading Chinese Legal and Statistical Categories: Labor, Individual Entities, and Private Enterprises)


Employers often contract private employment agencies avoiding to directly hire Nong Min Gong   workers so that they are working without a contract most of the time or with very temporary contracts. Very rarely they obtain long term employment contracts.

According to the recommendations of  Human Resources Managers (HRM) the Nong Min Gong should be relegated to the three 'D' (difficult, dirty and dangerous). The same state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the Chinese big transnational corporations often recruit (under subcontracts) many Nong Min Gong for hard, dirty and dangerous jobs.

The Nong Gong Min of the employment agencies are usually paid based on the minimum wage level in his native village and not on basis of the minimum wage of the city where they work. Some companies try to justify this by saying that rural workers need not be paid so much because they have other sources of income from the land in his native Hukou, and have fewer expenses because their families are in rural areas.

Much of migrants are illegal immigrants "undocumented" ie without Hukou or temporary residence card. Because of "paperless" nature there is no official estimate of the number of such migrants, although it is estimated that in several cities their number would be between 20 and 60% of the population, ie over 100 million of people.

In the Economic Survey of China 2010 of the OECD  it is noted that illegal immigrants are "probably" more than 40% of the total workforce in urban centers. These are the lowest paid of all. They are the real pariahs of globalization.

Impoverish the villages to encourage emigration


In many villages, only the elderly and children remain because the working agwie generations are in search of employment, providing much of the cheap labor that has made China the most formidable competitor of the export-oriented manufacturing worl, . With employers of migrant labor paying low wages that do not cover the cost of its reproduction.


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In China remains a peculiar system of rural land tenure, established in the 1980s, which prevents the sale of land, which has prevented the mass expropriation of the means of livelihood of farmers. This system has so far avoided the social instability which would have meant the mass alignment of 600 million people from their traditional means of livelihood.

The post Maoist "household responsibility system" set aside the role of the Commune as organizer of agricultural production, making the peasant household the basic unit of production.
 
The abolition of the Maoist rural collectivism began with experiments in the allocation of land to small production households in Sichuan and Anhui in 1978 (the "household responsibility system"). It was a time of struggle between the pro-capitalist fraction and the Maoist fraction and the capitalist fraction seeking to win the peasant masses. The commune system was extinct in 1983; an increase of 50 percent grain prices (paid by the state) and a large increase in fertilizer subsidies led to an annual 9% increase in agricultural production which increased rural incomes by 98.4% in the same time span: it was "the highest rate of reduction of rural poverty in world history."

Achieved the political objective, the state turned to the economic objective. The path to rapid industrialization by China's opening to transnational capital. But to produce cheap labor willing to emigrate needed the re-impoverishment of peasantry. This was done in two stages. First, a fundamental change in the tax system freed the central government of funding the administrative costs of the authorities at lower levels. From now on local governments adjusted their spending and investment within the limits of the taxes and charges that they may apply to residents within its jurisdiction.

In a second stage, local administrative bodies now converted into monstrous bodies of corporate management, began to exploit the residents under its jurisdiction with a growing number of fees and charges to feed its own continuous expansion. Offices responsible for seed, fertilizer, electricity, irrigation and flood control, all raised the price of their services to an extent that in many cases the farms were ruined and lost the recent profits from the era of "household responsibility system".



Currently the land is still regarded as a public good and state prevents the sale of farmland, which has prevented, so far, the expropriation of livelihoods of farmers. The system of land tenure established in the 1980s has served the wider interests of capital because it has not only avoided the social instability associated with huge landless masses, but has subsidized capital employing Nong Min Gong which reproductive capacity is assumed to be produced in their hometowns.

Despite the rapid growth of the Chinese economy in recent decades, more than 482 million people - 36% of the total population - live on less than $ 2 a day. The 85% of China's poor live in rural areas. In many villages, only the elderly and children remain.

Nong Min Gong wages


Although they do the same work, the wages of Nong Min Gong are much lower than that of urban residents.

Moreover, wages of workers with urban Hukou increased year after year, while Nong Gong Min real wages declined. The Nong Min Gong  work much longer hours than workers with urban Hukou. In 2006, 48.2% of workers with urban Hukou worked 40 hours per week, while 47.4% of Nong Min Gong  worked more than 48 hours per week. In addition, the salaries of Nong Min Gong workers always suffer deductions and with any excuse payment is delayed without justification. Employers always make unequal treatment between workers with urban Hukou and Nong Min Gong . The total number of delayed payment of wages to Nong Min Gong in 2002 reached nearly 30 billion yuan.


All official statistics on wages Nong Min Gong are inflated because between 70 and 80% of them work in the informal sector where wage insecurity is absolute.
 
In addition, the Nong Min Gong  workers lack at all of the "invisible income" that benefit those with urban Hukou, including housing allowance, education allowance, health insurance, accident insurance, unemployment insurance, etc.

Official data from 2004 showed that 145 million workers had no formal contract (the figure should be much higher). The labor market in China is notorious for bad working conditions, unpaid wages, low wages, forced labor and other forms of abuse. All this is reflected in the unprecedented increase i n the Gini coefficient (which measures inequality from "0" - equality - to "100" - one person owns everything-) of 0.16 in 1978 to 47.3 in 2006 and 61 in 2010. The share of wages in China's GDP has been steadily declining, falling to 36.7% in 2005.

TNC, Nong Min Gong and employment agencies


For large transnational corporations one of the main attractions to settle in Chinese territory is the existence of Hukou. Multinational companies take advantage of the anti-union climate, lack of knoledge of workers of their rights and the unwillingness of the Chinese government to address the systematic abuse of Nong Min Gong.




CEOs and specialists and managers in human resources (HRM) of large transnational corporations soon realized the enormous possibilities of the Hukou system for your globalists plans. The Hukou would become the pivot of the monopolist globalization becoming a permanent forced filter for the diabolical proletarianization of  hundreds of millions of peasants. Rural migrant workers, the Nong Min Gong are not only the backbone of China's manufacturing sector, but also constitute the fundamental basis of the global supply chain and therefore the pace of the global economy and the Nong Min Gong labor are closely related.

Although slowing growth in China is related to the fall in global aggregate demand caused by the Monopoly Depression, loss of Chinese competitiveness is closely related to the exhaustion of its supply of Nong Min Gong. Less Nong Min Gong  less growth.

The School of Management at Royal Holloway University of London produce Working Papers edited with suggestive titles such as: "Prolonged Selection or Extended Flexibility? A case study of Japanese Subsidiaries in China"2012. The author of the paper is Dr. Yu Zheng, Lecturer in Asian Business and International Human Resource Management at that university.

The objective of the research (case study) is to explore the Chinese labor market institutions to improve employment practices of multinationals, particularly subsidiaries of two Japanese consumer electronics sector corporations. The document notes that the Hukou system has important implications for targeting groups of workers in the local labor market.

According to the analysis of the case, the firm hire technicians and specialized personnel "normally" ("internal employment system"), the other employees are recruited through employment agencies (this group is marginalized and excluded from the "internal employment system"of the firm).

The group of plant workers is constituted mainly by Nong Min Gong , with renewable 3 months contracts  without guarantees of permanence in the company. During peak season, more than 80% of plant workers were Nong Min Gong who were recruited through a large number of local employment agencies. They perform simplified tasks: welding, assembly, painting and packaging. These workers are imparted minimal training and salary is based largely on its daily production (piecework). After the period of three months of employment these Nong Min Gong  return to the labor agencies, the subsidiary of the Japanese multinational thus avoiding paying the social insurance of these workers and other labor costs.


The supply of Nong Min Gong and rotation control of their contracts are a key challenge for companies with foreign investment in China. Local temporary employment agencies play a key rol for recruitment of abundant, flexible and low-wage work. Local labor agencies have connection with  regional  abor agencies  and collect information of rural migrants. Employment agencies also provide specialized training for disciplining Nong Min Gong. These agencies also cover the basic insurance and are responsible for handling complaints of workers, all of which allows subsidiaries of Japanese multinationals outsource these costly management job functions.

As demand for workers increases, the Japanese subsidiary, following the recommendations of local managers, sign long-term contracts with various employment agencies in order to expand the range of origin of migrant workers and prevent the formation of alliances according to their hometown. In the Chinese context, native alliances are common and are a key source of solidarity and integration of workers, which must be avoided at all costs.

Inside the factory prevails personal network rooted in traditional society and this is exploited by manufacturers as a control strategy, taking advantage of the interaction between gender, place of origin and gangsterism.


Nong Min Gong number


Their number has continued to increase at the pace of China's industrialization but it seems that finally the goose that lays golden eggs is leaving to put on.

There were about 30 million in 1989. In 2007 it was estimated that they were 136 million. In 2008 there were about 225 million Nong Gong Min, of which more than 80% worked in the informal sector. In 2013 the number had increased to more than 270 million.

According to the annual survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2014 there were 274 million Nong Min Gong , representing about 36% of all workers in China (770 million).

http://www.clb.org.hk/content/migrant-workers-and-their-children



Although the total number of Nong Min Gong has increased steadily over the past decades, the growth rate has declined significantly in the last five years (5.5% in 2010 to just 1.9% 2014). This slowdown is due to the contraction of the working age population in China. Restrictive family planning policies introduced in the 1980s, procreation difficulties  because of discrimination and increasing rural poverty, cause fewer and fewer people are entering the labor force and, therefore, it seems likely that the population of Nong Min Gong in China has already reached its zenith.

The gender balance of Nong Min Gong in 2014 was two-thirds of barons by one-third women. The trend is towards an older population. The proportion of workers aged 16 to 30 years old decreased from 42% in 2010 to 34% in 2014, while the proportion of workers over 40 years of age has risen from 34% in 2010 to 43% in 2014.



This slowing trend could be offset if the authorities end up putting into practice plans that aim to transform the Chinese countryside handing it over to large agro-industrial corporations, expelling from rural areas over a hundred million of peasant families (according to the Latin American model).



Nong Min Gong children


In most cities, the children of Nong Min Gong can not go to school because they do not have a local Hukou. The children of Nong Min Gong are not permitted to enroll in city schools, so they must be separated from their parents and live with grandparents or other relatives, in order to attend school in their hometowns. They are commonly known as "left at home children". There are about 130 million children living in villages without their parents. These rural schools suffer from a maddening lack of funds and consequently of educational quality. Chinese universities have a growing bias against the admission of students from these rural schools. In response to the resulting social problems, 13 newspapers from various regions of China issued a joint call for a campaign  for the abolition of the Hukou system (2 March 2010) , but it was silenced in a matter of days.

Public schools do not admit children of Nong Min Gong but they can do that charging high fees (Jiedu). Some have built Nong Min Gong  "private" schools for their children, low-cost schools known as "schools of migrant children". Researchers and journalists have found a lot of problems regarding the quality and safety of these schools.










Absence of slums or shantytowns



A mass emigration of hundreds of millions of peasants to the cities and the low wages they earn should have led to the emergence of slums and shanty towns on a large scale in the big cities as in India and in general throughout Southeast Asia. The Chinese government has done everything to erase the bad image of its economic miracle. However, the key instrument that has prevented the formation of shanty districts has been the Hukou system by which Nong Min Dong can only stay in cities provisionally. This forces them to reside in the same works or factories where they work, or pile up in rented temporary homes.








The Nong Min Dong not have the freedom to settle permanently any where. They are allowed to remain in dwellings provided by their employers (charging them rent or deductions of their wages) or by renting beds to local owners in dormitory neibourhood (chengzhongcun), provided they have employment and to register with local authorities as employees in transit ( the average living space of Nong Min Dong in Shanghai is 6m2). They must return to their county of origin after a prolonged period of unemployment or retirement - usually after 35 years -. Local authorities are well rid of Nong Min Dong when they are no longer profitable.

Links


http://chuangcn.org/blog/

http://elsalariado.info/2015/02/17/la-situacion-de-la-clase-obrera-en-china-el-sistema-Hukou/

http://www.gongchao.org/en/frontpage

http://economicstudents.com/2014/03/a-brief-history-of-chinas-Hukou-system/

Corrupción interactiva
http://www.chinafile.com/multimedia/infographics/visualizing-chinas-anti-corruption-campaign

http://www.chinafile.com/multimedia/infographics/nongmin-breakdown

http://www2.gsid.nagoya-u.ac.jp/blog/anda/files/2010/06/27_zhao-ling.pdf

https://repository.royalholloway.ac.uk/file/835844b8-dd0a-b735-347c-e206d4e09aef/1/Zheng,%20Y%20working%20paper%201204%20May%202012%20formatted%20version.pdf

  http://www.clb.org.hk/content/migrant-workers-and-their-children

2/17/2016

The 3th Monopolistic Depression


Spanish
http://isj.org.uk/the-global-crawl-continues/

The relationship between the current depression and monopolies seems to elude analysts. I  introduced "Monopoly Depression" in the Google searcher box and the only entries (a part of this blog ) refer to the game of Monopoly and som extrange  mental derangement.
Not a single reference elsewhere. Shocking. I tried "Monopolistic Depression". In this case Monopoly game did not apear but google continue to insist in a rare variety of mental depression. No one single economic reference.Finally I tried "Monopolist Economic Depression" and in this case only six results, all referred to Exit Capitalism. More shocking still. Well, whether we like it or not, there is a very strong relationship that closely links the two phenomena.

 Peter Thiel (Competition Is for Losers): "The opposite of perfect competition is monopoly. Whereas a competitive firm must sell at the market price, a monopoly owns its market, so it can set its own prices. Since it has no competition, it produces at the quantity and price combination that maximizes its profits....Actually, capitalism and competition are opposites. Capitalism is premised on the accumulation of capital, but under perfect competition, all profits get competed away...Only one thing can allow a business to transcend the daily brute struggle for survival: monopoly profits... Monopolists lie to protect themselves. They know that bragging about their great monopoly invites being audited, scrutinized and attacked. Since they very much want their monopoly profits to continue unmolested, they tend to do whatever they can to conceal their monopoly—usually by exaggerating the power of their (nonexistent) competition."

Depressions feel good to monopoly capital.
  • With depression monopolists gain market share at the expense of non-monopoly sector.
  • With depression the profits of monopoly sectors remain and even increase because only monopolists can maintain and even increase their prices in Depression.
  • According to the shock doctrine  (Naomi Klein), monopoly capital take advantage of disasters. In the shock and confusion generated by Depression monopolist take advantage to introduce neoliberal regulations to ensure their businesses and their monopoly rents.
  • Depression creates substantial opportunities for capitalist concentration: state borrowing difficulties facilitates the privatization of public enterprises and public services.
  • The crazy competition caused by the economic depression in non-monopoly industry (suppliers, subcontractors, workers, etc) implies the fall in prices, rents and profits (deflation), lowering costs for the monopoly sector and therefore increasing their monopoly rents. This means that the fall in rents and profits of some, the majority, increases the proffits of the minority, the monopolists. Monopoly sector increases its share of global income at the expense of the income of everyone else.
  • Depression means redistribution of rent and wealth in favour of the wealthiest. But this redistribution means proletarization. Monopoly capital  is the true esence of capitalism and the perfect machine of total apropiation or destruction of the means of production still not in their hands. Monopolistic depression means proletarization at a great scale.
    • Depression can be dangerous for monopoly capital if the people or the states react against their interests (economic nationalism, controls on capital movements, renationalisation, socialization, anti-trust regulations, etc.) Hence its diligence introducing regulations (bilateral free trade treaties, the Treaty of Maastricht, NAFTA, TTIP, TPP, etc.) to ensure perpetual depression and constitutionalising inability of democratic people and states to react in front of monopoly depression. The TTIP, TPP, and the like, constitutionalize the Monopolist Depression.
    • In 2011 I published an article entitled "Phase 4, Permanent Depression", where I promised the delivery of Chapter III, once finalized Chinese econòmic "miracle". Now that the Chinese econòmic "miracle" is up we are entering Chapter III of the Great Monopolistic Depression of XXIth century..

    I- The end of the disengagement of emerging countries


    Brad DeLong: "At some point we must stop calling this" The Great Recession "and start calling it "The Great Depression" ".

    The term "depression" causes chills and is forbidden in the media, but here and there, insistent timid warnings are arising  that we have something much deeper and more dangerous than a long recession, some thing like a "secular stagnation" (the term would be borrowed from Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen who used it in the forties. Krugman defines it as "a persistent situation in which a depressed economy is the norm, punctuated with increasingly sporadic episodes of employment recovery ")

    Fall in the price of raw materials


    Gillem Tulloch: "China is consuming more steel, iron and cement per capita than any other industrial nation in history. All railways will never make money, roads where no one drives or cities where no one lives. "

    Another indicator of the overall fragility is the decline in prices of raw materials. Of course, this trend is largely a result of the above. The decline in exports from Asia has resulted in a decline in regional manufacturing activity and a drop in demand and in prices of most commodities (prices of copper, aluminum, platinum, oil, coal, iron, etc., are already close to 2009 levels and some have already fallen below)

    These sharp declines in commodity prices threaten to drastically reduce growth rates of African and Latin American countries, most of which depend on exports of these commodities to finance imports needed to support the production and internal consumption, threatening to further reduce Chinese exports (the vicious cycle of depression).

    Rising debt


    Since the 2008 financial crisis the world has leveraged further. The total global public and private debt has increased from $ 143 trillion in 2007 to 200 trillion in 2014. The overall debt rose from 258% of world GDP in 2007 to 270% of it in 2014. The capitalist world  never in its history has been so indebted.

    While Europe has seen a transfer of private debt to public debt through bailouts, in China, the total debt, including the financial sector, has almost quadruplicated since 2007, reaching the equivalent of 282% of GDP.


    Before the crisis of 2008, all European nations, apart from Portugal and Greece, were reducing their level of debt to GDP. Most of Europe was reducing public debt to manageable and historically very low levels. Irish debt, for example, was very low (27%). It seemed as if they were preparing for the subsequent massive bailout.

    The next financial crisis is going to be definitely another debt crisis. But once started, however, the crisis will be very different from the last since this time almost all nations are already heavily in debt and unable to take on a new wave of rescues.

    Deflation in the non-monopoly sector 



    E.J. Jobsbawm (Industry and Empire): "During the Great Depression the standard of living of the workers who still have jobs are maintained thanks to the fall in the cost of life".

    In the old cyclical crises of overproduction of the nineteenth century, it was strong competition between companies which depressed prices (deflation), less competitive companies went banckruptcy and the market soared from lower prices and fewer suppliers companies.

    The current weakness of most economies, combined with the sharp fall in energy prices, has raised the fear of deflation for the first time since the Great Depression. In December 2014 the Eurozone fell back into deflation (there was deflation also in 2009). Japan is in deflation and the US and the UK are increasingly close to deflationary prices rates.

    According to academic economists the problem of deflation (and expectations involved) it is that it is a spiral that feeds on itself. Deflation reduces the rate of corporate profits that in response lower wages even further, resulting in lower aggregate demand and a further back down of prices. Deflation means that the real value of families, businesses and public administrations debts increase, so that a slight rise in interest rates may lead all them to default or bankruptcy. In addition, widespread indebtedness retract state investment and household demand.

    One problem with this theory is that it does not explain  why the demand does not recover by lowering prices. In previous crises, with a less monopolized system, prices plummeted by lack of demand (deflation) and competition between companies. The disappearance of companies on the one hand and low prices on the other, ended finally with the overcapacity, unemployment and deflation of the crisis.

    Another problem with this interpretation is that it considers a general deflation as something that affects all sectors, both monopolized and the rest. Although there are sectors where prices do not depress, but even go up, in computing the aggregate data dissapears the resisting prices and profits of the heavily monopolized sectors (banks, electricity, gas, water, gas stations, drug, food, drink, toll highways, telecommunications, etc.).

    In the non-monopoly sector in crisis (houses for rent, bars, farmers, supliers, ...), who does not lower prices does not put their products or services on the market. In this case consumers are winners, and few of them are excluded. However in monopolized sectors, such as energy corporations, telecommunications, gas stations, privatized public services, etc., prices resist i even go up during the crisis and increase profits at the expense of customers who, in the absence of alternative suppliers, they can only choose between paying the bill or be excluded . Private monopolies can more than offset the drop in demand by raising their prices even if it means the exclusion and marginalization of many of the world's population.

    Another hole in the conventional theory is that it assumes that overcapacity is bad for the economy and bad for everyone. But actually monopolist has some interest in maintaining overcapacity since this constitutes a good entry barrier in defense of their enclousured markets. Wal-Mart keeps operating in certain areas huge shopping centers, totally superfluous, to deter potential opponents.

    More financialization


     Low interest rates and monetary helicopters (QE or massive purchase of bonds and debt by the Central Bank) in the US and now in the euro zone have not accomplished its supposed stimulating effect on investment. Large corporations, financial and non-financial, have captured this funds issuing bonds at bargain rates to invest in the stock markets.

    The "easy" money currently provided by central banks, supposedly to restore growth, is easy money for big business but not, of course, for labor or small businesses. It does not stimulate investment but only the financial and speculative sector, increasing inequality and negative redistribution increasingly detracting resources from the poor to give to the rich.

    One way to increase profits without investing in the real economy is to use the "stimuli" to buyback your own actions. Thus you achieves to lower the ratio beetwen dividents and the number of shares (the EPS - earnings per share - increased) ie, the rate of return of securities increases artificially  attracting more investors to the stock exchange and so increasing quotations. Only a small residual portion of these "stimuli" is used to invest in new technologies or more jobs.

    http://blogs.lclark.edu/hart-landsberg/2015/07/26/capitalism-at-work-profits-over-people/

    The green line with its scale data left, collects benefit payments to shareholders and shares buy-backs, while the red line, with its scale data on the right, collects funds for productive investment.

    Repurchase operations announced for 2015 will register a record never reached of 993,000 million dollars. Since 2009, large American corporations have spent 2.4 trillion in repurchasing its own shares.

    According to Bloomberg Businessweek, many analysts share the view that large corporations are forced to adopt this behavior due to, or lack of,  more "attractive" alternatives (weak aggregate demand and negative expectations of profit) for the use of their funds.

    Dismal prospects of growth


    In short, the outlook for growth in the core countries is poor and as a result, Asia faces the very exhaustion of its growth strategy driven by exports. And the same is true for sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

    And the prospects for growth in the core countries are bleak given the austerity policies imposed by the Troika and the German and Japanese strategies of growth through exports (sacrificing domestic demand). As for the US, despite the fall in oil prices (which as elsewhere takes its own laps of time in lowering the price of gasoline), it is difficult that the exuberance of Wall Street and the stock markets will translate or mirrow into a "wealth effect "enough to stimulate demand, recovering its former role of locomotive of last resort for the global economy.

    In conclusion, with no significant structural changes in most economies, changes that include policies to encourage improvements in the conditions of life and work and resolutely face the environmental disaster caused by monopoly neoliberalism, we are fully entering into a long period difficulties.


    II. Depression favors Monopoly 



    Shimshon Bichler and Jonathan Nitzan: " Economists generally agree that the share of capital income in total income of the advanced countries is procyclical, meaning that in times of economic boom and low unemployment their incomes increase more than proportionally . But this is not what happens in practice. According to data from the world war, the income share of capital has been counter-cyclical, rising and falling during crises during booms "..." In plain language: the capitalists are not at all concerned about the crisis but all otherwise. The love it."

    • With depressionMonopolists  gain market share at the expense of non-monopoly sector.
    • With depression the profits of monopoly sectors remain and even increase while monopolists are able to maintain and even increase their prices in the mids of depression.
    • According to the doctrine of shock (Naomi Klein), monopoly capital take advantage of disasters. The shock and confusion generated by the Monopolistic Depression make easy to introduce neoliberal regulations to ensure their businesses and their monopoly rents.
    •  Depression means redistribution of rent and wealth in favour of the wealthiest. But this redistribution means proletarization. Monopoly capital  is the true esence of capitalism and the perfect machine of total apropiation or destruction of the means of production still not in their hands. Monopolistic depression means proletarization at a great scale.
    • The Monopolist Depression creates substantial opportunities for capitalist concentration: unbearable state borrowing facilitates the privatization of public enterprises and public services.
    • With depression, crazy competition in non-monopoly industry (suppliers, subcontractors, workers, etc) implies the fall in prices, rents and profits (deflation), these fall resulting in lower costs to the monopoly sector and therefore increasing their monopoly rents. This means that the fall in rents and profits of some, the most, increases the benefits of monopoly minority. Monopoly sector increases its share of global income at the expense of the  reduced income of everyone else.
    • But depression can be dangerous for monopoly capital if the people or the states react against their interests (economic nationalism, controls on capital movements, renationalisation, socialization, anti-trust regulations, etc. something that occurred during the first Globalization)  Hence the earnestness in introducing regulations (bilateral free trade treaties, the Treaty of Maastricht, NAFTA, TTIP, TPP, etc.) to ensure perpetual depression, constitutionalising democratic inability of states to react to Monopolistic Depression. The TTIP, TPP and the like, constitutionalize the Monopolistic Depression.


    1. Theories about depression


    Supply side theories of depression:


    Technocratic explanation: Unlike other depressions in the current situacion there are not enough technical innovations covering a wide area of economic sectors that can mean the creation of new industries and redirect the system in the path of growth.

    Demand side theories of depression (Keynesian):


    Martin Wolf: "The world economy has been generating more savings that businesses want to use, even at very low interest rates"

    For Keynesians, depression is the result of increased hoarding combined with a lack of investment demand. Much hoarding and lack of demand for loans for investment involves the famous liquidity trap: real interest rates low, even negative, fail to stimulate investment and growth.

    Some unscrupulous suggest that the cause of hoarding would be the aging of population and the declining birth rate. Wolf, meanwhile, attributes the fall in investment to a change in the "corporate culture" that prefer to speculate in financial assets to invest in productive capital.

    .Marxist theories


    According to the classical Marxist theory, the phenomenon leading to depression is on the low rate of expected corporations profits from  their funds.

    Competition among capitalists force prices and therefore the rate of profit to fall, discouraging investment and creating unemployment.

    But the problem with that view is that large monopoly corporations continue to provide ample profit rates even in times of depression. In modern times does not occur a falling rate of profit in the large monopolist sector  but on the contrary. 

    Paul M. Sweezy and Paul. A. Baran, in his book "The Monopoly Capital" in 1966 argued that monopoly capital has a dynamic contradiction. Unlike under capitalism of small business in hard competition, in which there was a tendency to decrease the rate of profit, in the subsequent step, with the generalization of large monopolies, this trend disappears replaced by a growing  profits rate, at least for the monopolized sector.

    But, according to Baran and Sweezy the system displays a chronic inability to absorb the huge gains that can produce. Thanks to their monopoly positions they obtain gains in excess that they  invest in additional capacity. The problem is that aggregate demand does not follow and productive capacity becomes overcapacity so that future investments will not generate more profits. Why increase investment if the benefits continue to flow with the current installed capacity? Ie, monopoly capitalism dies of its own success. "It follows that the normal state of the monopoly capitalist economy is stagnation".

    And while financial speculation promise rates higher than the actual investment profits, the capitalists will run out from productive investment. Speculative financialization, although it can generate more business via financial bubbles due to the wealth effect associated with them, eventually generates more inequality and therefore lower effective demand.

    In what seems all agree is on that the Great Depression do not interest to their sufferers (workers and middle classes) but also do not interest all capitalists (the Keynesians particularly insist on it) and at this point they are wrong. There is a group of capitalists, the most powerful, who may be interested in depression. This is the big transnational monopoly corporation.

    2 Depression. Profits and proletarisation



    To create a simple job means an effort in fixed capital (organic composition of capital) that few investors are actually willing to cash. But with no additional jobs unemployement  force wages down. This keeps  increasings the profits of the monopolized industries (monopoly rents) but shrinks more and more global demand (vicious circle).

    We have to consider two distinct segments with respect to the rate of profit. We must dissagregate the profits of monopoly sector from profits of non-monopoly sector.

    The investment in the non-monopoly sector reacts directly to the profit rate, present and expected. However, the reaction in the monopoly sector to the rate of profits is by no means directly proportional. There may not be any reaction at all or may even be an inverse relationship. At more profits less investment.

    Monopoly capital resist very well great periods of crisis. You may notice that, paradoxically, they rather thrive when the non monopolist sector go down. Their share of total income increases countercyclical. A more depression greater inequality since the proportion of income they appropriate encrease. The tremendous increase in inequality as depression extends and deepens  reflects this paradox.

    The explanation for this apparent paradox is the result of the mad competition in non-monopoly sector (suppliers, subcontractors, workers, etc) involving the fall in prices, rents and profits (deflation), all that resulting in lower costs for the monopoly sector and therefore increasing their monopoly rents. This means that the fall in rents and profits of some, the most, increases the profits and rents of monopoly minority.

    With the crisis and depression the only ones who keep their profits are corporations with  greater degree of monopoly. Profit rates of big monopolistic corporations have doubled since 2008 due to reduced corporate tax, reduced employer contributions to social security and shrinking wages (policies of austerity and internal devaluation), while the rate of profits of non-monopoly sector collapses dragged by the decline of global demand.

    Really no one knows how much are the profits of multinational corporations. They declare what they want where they want. Its profits statements are part of its "creative accounting" to attract new capital or are simply part of their public relations policy. Hence the persistent asymmetry whereby profits appear only on the good side of the value chain that is usually located in a tax haven.

    Multinational monopolies, basically use three techniques to disguise their profits and evade taxes

    a) Moving "their" intellectual property (patents, trademarks, ...) to subsidiaries in tax havens. Subsidiaries located in tax havens do not pay (deductible expenses) for patents "owned" by the subsidiary of a tax haven.

    b) Transfer pricing. All subsidiaries in countries where taxes must be paid do not record any profit since commodities go in  at similar costs that the sales prices charged to end consumers . In the process of production, transportation and marketing are involved several subsidiaries that  bill between them. The only subsidiaries that record profits are these registered in tax havens.

    c) Profit stripping  is to offset profits in a country where you pay taxes with expenses payable to a subsidiary in a tax haven. A subsidiary in Bermuda lend money at interest to a subsidiary in France. The profits in France are kept down to pay interest to the subsidiary in Bermuda.

    Another advantage of depression for large corporations is that the contraction of demand generated overcapacity in the most affected sectors; but for the monopolists, overcapacity is an additional barrier to entry which strengthen their positions and favors expansion. Overcapacity becomes an intrinsic, desired and permanent feature of the monopoly Depression.

    Under deflation and overcapacity non-monopolistic businesses close and throw the towel, while central banks send up fleets of monetary helicopters that invariably end up in financial speculation, providing more and more powder for the concentration of capital. As in previous depressions, the crisis is the breeding ground for monopoly concentration and as can be seen, the day-to-day crisis do not stop mergers, associations, acquisitions, ... a race without obstacles to the Global monopolism.

    Indebted states, opting for austerity and internal devaluation soon are forced to give up companies, services and public monopolies, which are immediately absorbed by the jaws open wide of capital concentration.

    Thus, the monopoly would fatten with Great Depression. The Great Depression is good for the monopolists provided no sufficiently significant protests occur  to threaten your system.

    Depression and financial bubbles


    Financialization and speculative financial bubbles are inherent to monopoly capitalism.

    The growing monopolists surplus that do not find placement  in the real economy are diverted toward financial speculation increasingly generating more huge bubbles. A defining characteristic of the current phase of global monopoly capital 2.0 is the rising and growing of spiral financial bubbles that are dotting the geography of the last stages of the Great Depression.

    Bubbles act as a drug addiction. The absorption of a new dose seems to improve the feelings of the subject whose health is deteriorating with the rapid succession of increasingly stronger doses. But bubbles benefit monopoly capital since, thanks to its privileged information usually leave on time and unscathed from speculative successive rounds. Just in case, the size of corporations is such (too big to fail) that have assured the public rescue in case of bankruptcy.

    Public bailouts increase the indebtedness of states which are constrained to sell off public assets (public monopolies, utilities, etc.), which further increases the concentration of monopoly capital.

    The increase in public debt, facilitates labor and administrative "flexi-reforms" that contribute to further increase the monopoly rent and therefore the the next bubble speculation.

    But if all that were not enough, after bubbles major central banks launche monetary helicopters fleets (Quantitative Easing) to monetize debt, money that also ends in the hands of speculators inflating the next bubble further.

    4. Capital mobility and depression


    Hayek: "The ideal result would be the transformation of local governments and even of regional governments to quasi commercial corporations competing to attract investors".

    The global monopolist expansion requires, almost as a sine qua non, the freedom of movement of capital. That there is no such freedom for individuals may even be advantageous for big capital since the division and discrimination between workers provides higher rates of labor exploitation (labor arbitrage).

    Freedom of capital flows, while ensuring tax evasion, repatriation of profits and financial speculation, facilitates the ability of transnational monopolies for offshoring and relocating, thus achieving, despite nationalist obstacles to labor movements, the much desired reduction in labor costs in Western countries, in addition to considerable tax advantages and public subsidies.

    Hence the leitmotive of monopoly neoliberal capitalism discurse are the supposedly unquestionable benefits (sic!) Of the free movement of capital, free movement that brings more monopoly, more dependency, more poverty and more depression.

    The international mobility of capital (through liberalized financial markets and free trade) potentiates a disciplinary effect on states. Capital mobility requires states to compete for mobile transnational capital, providing the kind of neoliberal policies that investors and multinational companies demand.

    The mobility of capital, based on the "right to leave" creates a kind of "government policies market" in which firms claim to be located in jurisdictions that offer the most favorable mix of labor costs, environmental costs, taxes and services. That is, the mobility of capital globalizes the neoliberal austerity policies of impoverishment and carries a withdrawal of aggregate demand which translates into more depression.

    5. The theory of the "impossible trinity" and the impossibility of decoupling



    During the Great Depression of the thirties nations tried to decouple from depression taking a variety more or less sound economic policies.

    But actually monopoly capital is provided with a formidable theoretical arsenal to ensure their dominance and prevent any lasting and effective decoupling  of its Monopolistic Depression.

    The theory of the "impossible trinity" has been used to justify anti-democratic consequences of offshoring and capital flows associated with monopoly neoliberal globalization, constituting the main theoretical trick to force permanent "opening" of economies to transnational capital.

    The "impossible trinity" or "trilemma" said, according to the 1962 Mundell-Fleming model, that is impossible for a country to simultaneously maintain a fixed exchange rate, free capital flows and a separate and independent monetary policy.

    According to the famous theory, governments of "open" economies face an economic "trilemma" that "forces to resign" at least to one objective of economic policy. If they want to "enjoy"  free flow of capital (1), they must sacrifice the exchange rate policy of its currency (2) or give up to its own monetary policy (3). Ie they will only enjoy an autonomous monetary policy if they let the exchange rate float.


    That is, to give up a political control over the movements of transnational capital (open economy) implies, "for reasons of economic theory", to give up an autonomous exchange rates policy (currency devaluation for exemple ) or an independent monetary policy (lower interest rates). The give up of a certain economic policy for the benefit of the population would not be at all a cut of national democracy but a whimsical imponderable of economic theory.

    In practice, as has recently statetdhe economist Hélène Rey, the global financial cycle restricts monetary policies whatever the exchange rate regime. "Many believe that a flexible exchange rate can isolate ourselves from financial shocks and allow us to pursue an independent monetary policy ... But if there is a global financial cycle, as I think, the exchange rate can not separate us from what happens in the rest countries "(Finance and Development. June 2015). That is, if you want to continue "enjoying" the free flow of capital, so dear to monopoly transnational capital, you will have to give up any autonomous economic policy at all. That is, the free flow of transnational monopoly capital imposes a kind of straitjacket that prevents any democratic reaction to Monopolistic Depression.

    In addition, monopolists and financiers have imposed on the world a kind of "solidarity market". In the absence of capital controls and trade protectionism, and with most industries offshored , economic stimulus in some countries end up benefiting exports of others. In the Chinese case the beneficiaries have been Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, the so-called emerging countries that managed to decouple for a few years of the Monopolistic Depression.

    It is precisely the quasi constitutional institutionalization of free mobility of transnational capital registered in bilateral agreements, regional agreements, integration agreements, or macro global agreements (TTIP, TPP), which is preventing the nations to resist the onslaught of the Great Monopolistic Depression.

    Even the giant Chinese nation, with huge dollar reserves, is experiencing that to continue "enjoying the free flow of capital" implies few if any autonomy in terms of policy exchange or alternative monetary policy to boost domestic demand. China will must, therefore, die insisting on the export model that will dictate transnational monopolies, polluting without restraint, squandering its resources, cutting wages and increasing the number of unemployed.

    So triumphant monopoly capitalism, with little opposition can finally show his true face, its intrinsic essence is to maintain human society in a permanent state of economic and environmental crisis to further increase their power and profits at any cost even if it means ending the human experience on the planet.



    Links:

    http://blogs.lclark.edu/hart-landsberg/2015/07/26/capitalism-at-work-profits-over-people/

    http://blogs.lclark.edu/hart-landsberg/2015/08/03/signs-of-global-slowdown/

    http://isj.org.uk/the-global-crawl-continues/