5/20/2011

CAPITALISM: MONOPOLY AND OLIGOPOLY

 Spanish



Leo Tolstoy: "The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow witted man if he has no formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him". 

Origin of monopolies 


Since its inception, capitalism has shown an inherent tendency towards concentration and accumulation. From manufacturing to the factory and from the local enterprise company to regional, national and multinational company. The verb growing is synonymous of living in capitalism. Growth can be accelerated by the centralization and expansion based on takeovers of competitors and finance offered a powerful tool for early concentration.

Achieving a position of monopoly is the dream of every capitalist and the lure that guides his business. No competitors can put the price at will and make super profits. If you do not get a monopoly but operators are few and their size and power is similar, it is best to agree prices (oligopoly) to embark on a spiraling price war to increase the share of the pie at the expense of colleagues.

Definition of "monopoly" 


When we talk about monopolies we do not talk in the restrictive sense of a market with a single vendor, but we refer to large firms with "power monopoly" which are able to limit the entry of potential competitors (barriers to entry), control or negotiate the amount produced, set or agree on pricing (oligopolistic markets), act as unique buyers - Wal Mart -reducing its suppliers to extreme precariousness, to reduce their wage costs with the threat to relocate,.... We therefore refer to a handful of corporations with "monopoly power" over one or more sectors of the economy.

Monopoly Capitalism 1.0 vs monopoly capitalism 2.0


Monopoly Capitalism 1.0.

Monopoly capitalism requires large economic areas to develop. The large U.S., German hinterland ... became the original niche and ideal training ground since the late nineteenth century. The stock market and finance leveraged the process. In 1901, 165 steel companies merged to form U.S. Steel with the cooperation of banking at JP Morgan. In the 20 Vereinigte Stahlwerke emulated U.S. Steel in Germany while IG Farben became the largest chemical company in the world.


They where monopolistic or oligopolistic companies nationwide. Price-fixing and restricting production to obtain and maintain super benefits. Monopolies operated mainly at national level, gave work and pay taxes to the country that supported them in obtaining raw materials, energy, foreign markets ... and defended them in international competition (protectionism) and supported them in their expansionist attempts (imperialism). Monopoly 1.0. ended up with nineteenth-century "laissez fair"  and bet strongly on protectionism and State intervention.

There was a kind of "social contract" by which part of the profits of large "national" monopolistic corporations  benefited States and people of the nation. The same States established public monopolies preparing the ground for its future privatization. During the short period between the 1st and the 2nd GM, England tried to regain the ground against their monopolistic rivals  merging most of the small companies of railways (1921), concentrating and nationalizing most of the power and gas (1926), largely unifying the London transport service, constituting a monopoly on iron and steel (1932) creating a national government-sponsored cartel of coal (1936). Trade unions and left-wing parties had repeatedly supported monopolies and colonial adventures of their respective imperialism.


Monopolies 1.0. controlled their state base and launched armed struggle for the control of raw materials and foreign markets. Oil and rubber were also the first to experience monopoly concentration. Nazism and Fascism will not be understood without that perverse collusion of interests. The Germans monopoly collusion with Nazism has been well studied by Niall Ferguson .

In the ancient cyclical crises of overproduction of the 19th century, competition depressed prices (deflation), fell the least competitive companies (whose size was not "systemic") and the market got back from low prices and fewer offering firms. But after each crisis, the companies that resisted were larger.

Since the end of the 19th century things changed. Monopoly 1.0 monopolized most of the benefits of the national controlled sectors  leaving the rest of the companies in precarious conditions. In addition, monopoly has much more power than the normal company to force to lower wages and payments to suppliers. When crisis broke out, companies to sacrifice had acquired a considerable size (systemic). On the other hand the monopolies in good health prevented the sharp drop in the prices of the sectors they controlled so demand dit not recover.

Suddenly people noticed that crisis had left aside its cyclical nature to become unstoppable spirals that swallowed more and more assets and companies. In 1890, at the end of the Long Depression  (1870-96), in the United States, were dictated the first antitrust laws  (Sherman Antitrust Act). Huey P. Long, Governor of Louisiana (1928-32), Senator from Louisiana from 1932 until his assassination in 1935 (intended to stand for the Presidency of the United States), uncovered during their election campaigns, the sinister amalgam between monopoly and polarization of income and wealth as the fundamental cause of the great depression.

In the 1940s was a commonplace among academic circles the discussion on  monopolist disease that afflicted capitalism. Roosevelt attempted to oppose the monopolization of the economy and antitrust laws were established. In the 1930s he established a Committee to investigate the practices of the monopolies that were experiencing an exponential progression in concentration of capital taking advantage of the crisis.

Capitalism had become ill of acute "monopolitis", had precipitated the great depression and had launched the Nations to the self-destruction of  WWT that almost destroys humankind. In academic circles peaple spoke of the end of capitalism or the death of capitalism.

After the disaster the system entered a phase of moderation, bowing to pressure from social unrest. It was a kind of resurrection. Capitalism reappear in disguise, a new capitalism with a human face, the New Deal and Keynesianism, the Marshall Plan, improving working conditions in the center and countries neighboring the USSR and China. In addition, generating a welfare state favored a continued demand recovery.
 
The already fully monopolistic character  of the system empowered large corporations to maintain high prices and sufficient to pay employees more fractious, salaries and benefits above the mere subsistence, and, with the return to growth. The emerging debate about the evils of monopoly where set aside and monopolies adopted a new strategy.


Monopoly Capitalism 2.0.

The monopoly of a single country was suffocating. The system needed a qualitative leap towards global monopolism. The entrenched monopoly in an expensive nation-state that could no longer resort to war, invasion or domination, was obsolete. The ground had to be prepared for a new type of monopoles, global monopolism. Neoliberalism, the exaltation of the benefits of competition, deregulation and the global market provided the ideological steamroller for the penetration of global monopoly.

It was needed to lay the groundwork for a new kind of monopoly 2.0. able to operate in a supra-national area, more comprehensive and aggressive, which is no longer limited to the manufacturing sector but invade each and every one of the sectors of the economy (trade retail, hospitality, transportation, telecommunications, messaging,...) and to all geographical areas: the global monopolism. Neoliberalism, the ideological steamroller for the global monopolistic conversion, began to take shape.


Phase 2 began in the early 70's., when meet together an economy with clear signs of excess capacity and a strong expansion of world money supply (eurodollars, USA trade deficit growing )  and transnational banking.

Monopolies were leaving aside its national base to embark to the conquest and subjugation of the planet. When monopoly 1.0 wanted to impose their law declared a "lock out" (lockout). Monopoly 2.0 will simply relocate. States, provinces, cities,... to compete with each other to offer rebates of taxes, reductions in social security contributions, rebates on environmental protection, subsidies, free infrastructure, labor trained and qualified at their expense, ..., to attract elusive multinationals that have managed to outsource most of their costs.

The first years of phase 2.0. were years of battles, shark attacks , hostile takeovers, and tricks to consolidate positions and destroy competitors. "One country monopolies" that resisted change were swept away, one after another. A good Oscar winner screenplay reflected this in the movie Wall Street.

The computerization and telecommunications technological advances facilitated transnational business operations, but it was especially  financialization (transnational credit expansion) what supplied the gunpowder and fuel to trigger a global, meteoric and unstoppable, process of mergers and acquisitions.

In the early 1980s North American monopolies were losing ground to Japanese and German corporations. Reagan paved the way for the monopoly 2.0 phase. Between 1980 and 1985 a strong dollar  (P. Volker raised interest rates triggering incidentally the Latin American debt crisis and  the East European counties debt crisis) and increasing doses of financial deregulation paved the ground for the transnationalization and relocation of monopolies made in USA.

But this first phase of globalization was premature. The consequences for American exports were so severe that Reagan had to turn back. The agreement of the Plaza in 1985 forced the revaluation of the yen and the deutsche mark, returning oxygen to U.S. exporters. But the agreement of the Plaza, which held back somewhat the globalization of monopolies made in USA, had as a result something unexpected, the rapid globalization of the Japanese monopolies that, to compete with a devalued dollar, decided to relocate massibly their plants and industries to the Asian continent. 1985-90 represented the golden time of the "Asian Tigers" (with their currencies linked to the devalued dollar) with massive amounts of foreign investment.

In 1995 the Plaza agreement was reversed (Reverse Plaza Accord). The American monopolies had been left behind in terms of globalization. The agreed rise of the dollar respect to the yen and the DM meant the definitive autsourcing of all what was possible outsourced in the United States. The strength of the dollar (along with Clinton financial deregulation ) constituted a key element in the financial globalization that would lead Wall Street.

The exporting "Asian Tigers" monopolies (South Korean chaevols,...) resented the reversal of the Plaza accord and retaliate relocating part of its plants and industries to China. The Chinese giant was offered a good price (the looting of their environment and their labor) as a platform for total monopoly globalization.

Exponential Concentration


Monopolist concentration is not a linear process but an accelerated one. The neoliberal globalization is the ideal and conducive field of concentration, reproduction and hypertrophy of the large multinational corporations. Thirty years of globalization has meant a degree of unprecedented concentration of capital.


Between 1990 and 1995, more than 40% of the companies listed in Fortune 500, disappeared absorbed by other larger.

This process has occurred in almost all sectors (10 car companies hold 77% of the market 2 aviation companies control 100% of the aviation sector's large aircraft, 5 operators control 83% of fixed telephony, 3 operators control 77% of mobile telecommunications infrastructure, while only three control 65% of mobile market, 10 control 70% of pharmaceutical drug sold; 4 supplied 75% of boxed tobacco smoke, only 3 companies produce about 70% of all agricultural machinery and equipment, ...). Between 1980 and 2008 multinationals increased their direct investment abroad of $ 0.5 billion to 13.6 billion. In 2008, 37% of the shares of European companies belong to foreign investors.

In fact the statistics fall short because the monopolization takes opaque and sophisticated ways that do not add in the computation, such as hollow companies (Nike, Beneton, Apple, ..., do not invest abroad but outsource almost everything they produce) or strategic (the Star Alliance groups 25 airlines under the leadership of United Airlines).



Also monopolies interact between them in order to keep the entire production process in a global monopolistic environment. Apple has built a kind of global assembly for your iPod and the iPhone line to minimize their costs. The production of the components is divided between Toshiba, Samsung, Infineon, Broadcom, Numonyx, Murata, Dialog Semiconductors and Cirrus Logic. All these components are shipped to assembly plants of Foxconn in Shenzhen where its 400,000 workers earn 80 cents $/h working in worst than Chaplin "Modern times" working conditions. The result is a monopolists profit margin of 64% on each individual appliance.

The process of capitalist concentration is one way in each and every one of the economy sectors. Never operate in reverse. With the exception of unexplored areas, once the operators have been reduced to 10 will never happen again to be 12 or 15 but 7, 4, .... They progress using all kinds of tricks and tactics to phagocyte and grow, raising insurmountable barriers to entry and grow into increasingly monopolistic positions. This is a truly global black hole that swallows and swallows constantly. Economic competition is disappearing. If you are a monopolistic company you only have to cash in profits and, as in the previous phase, the crisis and depression further strengthen and accelerate this process.

The 500 largest multinationals have 80% of the accumulated stock of global foreign direct investment and account for 50% of international trade. Dominate all natural resources, control the development of current and future technologies, control the majority of the agencies and media and entertainment, impose its economic, political, cultural and ideological influence on subject nations, spread everywhere the neoliberal creed, and its decisions of investment, outsourcing, expansion, etc., affect hundreds of millions of workers and their families.

Monopoly, crisis and depression 


E.G. Jobsbawm (industry and Empire): "During the great depression the standard of living of the workers who still had labor was maintained thanks to the fall in the cost of living".

The history of capitalism is the history of the accumulation and concentration of capital. If there is no accumulation system collapses it. After reaching the monopolist 2.0 phase  there is no more phases ahead. Capitalism has succeeded. All the institutional, political, sociological barriers have been crossed. The only limit left, however, is the planet itself, its resources are limited, and these barrier is insurmountable. There is no other planet Earth that hunt or aliens who submit. The total triumph also means the total failure. The system has entered a final crisis of over-accumulation  and a depressive spiral , a bottomless abyss.

In the cyclical crises of  youth capitalism, failed companies did not have sufficient scope to precipitate a depressive spiral. It was the cyclic time of the system. The crisis of overproduction, result of inter-capitalist competition, reduce prices and only the strongest companies survived. The system seemed to have an automatic mechanism for recovery.

But after each crisis the number of companies in each sector was reduced. As the system has been maturing and aging, the stars of the constellation have been getting increasingly bigger and bigger and more and more dangerous crises, becoming depressive spiral cycles and dragging in their fall not only the big banks that financed them, but also the States that sheltered them.

Overcapacity under monopoly

In past crises, with a less monopolized system, prices plummeted by lack of demand (deflation ) and competition between firms. The disappearance of companies on one side and low prices  on the other, ran at the end with overcapacity.

Actually the crisis of overproduction primarily affect the non-monopoly sector. Monopolies tend to resist very well the crisis , often becoming reinforced .

Suppose the case of the aviation industry. This is a duopoly that has outsourced most of its operations. There are no marginal firms prone for destruction. When the recession threatens their income, the duopoly simply stops investing, reduces demand to their suppliers and force them to lower prices, thus costs are reduced and monopoly profits increase.

In addition , the monopolist has some interest in maintaining overcapacity since this is hard barrier to entry . Wal -Mart keeps running huge megastores in certain areas , totally superfluous, to deter potential opponents.

Prices that do not "suffer" depression


In the few non-monopolistic sectors  in crisis (rental housing, beach bars,...), who does not drop prices does not sell. In this case, consumers are benefited and few of them are excluded. In contrast in monopolized sectors, such as energy corporations, prices "go up" during the crisis and corporate benefits increase charging more customers that in the absence of alternative suppliers can only choose to pay the Bill or be disconnected (excluded). Private monopolies are generating the exclusion and marginalization of a large part of the population of the planet.




Under overcapacity conditions investment flees to fictitious capital and financial speculation supplying more and more gunpowder for the concentration of capital. As in previous slumps, the crisis is the breeding ground for monopolist concentration with a crescendo non stop in groupings, mergers, acquisitions,..., a race without obstacles to the global monopolism.

The monopoly privilege allows large corporations reduce at pleasure production to ensure a good level of profits while maintaining high level of prices while small and medium-sized enterprises and States succumb, ceding more and more ground to large corporations. Public and private defaults are ceding positions, one after another, sector after sector.  Indebted and broken States soon  end up being forced to give up business, services and public monopolies that are immediately absorbed by the wide open jaws of  monopolist capital.

So the 21st century will be the century of the permanent depression, of the depression without deflation, the continual crisis, without just a hint of cyclical recovery. The 21st century will be the century of the exterminism, of the infernal collapse of a system which, if it is not surpassed by the global socialism, will lead humanity into a global impasse, much more quickly than many people think.

Micro-efficiency and Macro-inefficiency


Proponents of capitalist globalization handle very well the discourse on the supposed "efficiency" attributable to the large multinational corporations that benefit the alleged "consumer sovereignty." Actually monopolist efficiency is a "micro-efficiency" in handling the consumer imagination, micro-efficiency in the monopoly and control of the investigation, and micro-efficiency in the production and sale of products essentially "macro-inefficient" in environmental goals and in meeting the real needs of the population.


Its growing micro-efficient sprawling tumor means more macro-inefficiency every day. The senile capitalist system is increasingly more "macro-inefficient". Wasteful production for capricious and extravagant rich (who tire quickly of new models) and planed obsolescencefor the rest. A system that "produces" unpaid externalities and generates an enormous ecological debt (mountains of toxic and carcinogenic waste of energy, climate change, ocean acidification, disruption of the nitrogen cycle, ...)

Public monopolies vs private monopolies


Public monopolies

Monopolies are not inherently bad. To minimize cost (economies of scale) is economic if everyone uses the same product. Public monopolies may be economically efficient in many cases and do not exclude anyone.Public monopolies are cheaper for the consumer (there are no capitalist CEOs) and are not mutually exclusive. In addition, since they do not promote social inequality, they are surely beneficial to the general public.


Private monopolies: disconnection and exclusion

If there are no large social differences in a society private monopolist has little to gain, selling only to the richest. But if the differences are abysmal the monopolist tends to exclude the vast majority charging high monopoly prices to the rich minority.

The private monopoly, without the control of the State, is antisocial and exclusionary. In conditions of strong social inequality, to maximize benefits, the monopolist sets prices that exclude a growing proportion of consumers (with low incomes). The combination of global pharmaceutical monopolies and social inequality has been catastrophic in AIDS treatment. The monopolist logical  is simple. A low price affordable for every patient generates less profit than a high price only available to wealthy patients.

If the total population with AIDS would be 100 patients and everyone could pay 10 for the treatment, the monopolist would charge 10 and sell 1000 (5 unit cost), so the benefit would be 500. If 90 patients can only afford 8 but the 10 richest can pay 100, the logical in monopoly is not to lower the price to 8 but to rise it up to 100 keeping their benefits, producing less and excluding treatment to the 90% of patients. This is what happened in reality and this is what is widespreading at all levels.

Therefore the private monopoly does not have any special interest in "economic recovery". Social inequality is not a "macro-economic" handicap preventing high earnings and is an advantage in pursuing concentration of capital.

The monopolist advance  increases social inequality to levels never seen and soon are the middle classes which are progressively excluded from the monopoly market. Growing portions of the population are being disconnected as the permanent depression progresses. Inequality, monopoly and economic crisis feedback each other.

Multinationals, "efficiency" and "competitiveness"


The "competitive" market is for the worker (labor market) for the self employed, for the subcontracted. If there is competition there would not be super-profits. The positions of monopoly or oligopoly inhibit competition and are synonymous with super-profits. Once consolidated their positions globally monopolists do not compete on price but they agree prices and collaborate on tactics and strategies to achieve higher levels of exploitation because it benefits all together.

The hyper-profits are not the result of "monopolistic competition" but of offshoring, outsourcing, the abuse of small and medium enterprises, outsourcing costs, tax evasion, corruption and manipulation of governments and national and international collusion with illegal trafficking and financial speculation.

Their global power allows them to put here and there wages, environmental regulations, labor, business, tax, criminal, financial, etc. in competition. Hence its vaunted "efficiency" and "competitiveness." Efficiency in exploiting and suicidal competition among its subcontractors.


Monopoly capitalism 2.0 and imperialism 2.0


Monopolies 1.0 used the force of its parent States to expand and control their markets and ensure supplies of raw materials. This phenomenon, known as imperialism, was often regarded as the last stage of capitalism (Lenin).

The strengthening of the State included that part of the profits of the large monopolistic corporations were taxed. Unions and left-wing parties repeatedly supported the colonial adventures of their respective imperialism. Cecil Rhodes recognized that to curb the social conflicts in its territory the British had to be imperialists.

Many of the armed conflicts, including the last two world wars, due to this pattern. Monopolies were interested in strengthening nationalism and public and military structures of their base States for use against other imperialist States. The dominant ideology had nothing to do with the current neo-liberalism. Economic nationalism, industrialization, protectionism, economic planning, areas of influence, colonies, markets captives,....

The disaster and the destruction of the 2 GM did patent the dangerousness and inviability of the imperialist rivalries. The former colonial powers view rapidly reduced their old empires and very soon the "imperialist" adjective was reserved for the United States, the dominant power.

Monopolies, including those of american origin changed their strategy. Neoliberalism, dangerous for the less dynamic monopolies, offered unprecedented opportunities for the more aggressive firms and one after another began to become multinational. The mighty American imperialism, although tended to favor monopolies USA, became de facto the global policeman of private monopolies.

The new imperialism was redesigning according to the coordinates anticipated by Karl Kautsky when he predicted the arrival of the "collective imperialism" - imperialism in block in relation to the colonies - .

After the capitalist reconquest of USSR and China, what was left of old-style imperialism ceased to be functional. "Efficient" monopolies were increasingly less interested in the support of  States socially and environmentally too demanding and too expensive in exchange for services that could be obtained directly or in other places, in better conditions and almost without compensatory measures (direct bribes, mercenaries and assassins, international finance, tax havens,...).

It is true that the international institutions (UN, World Bank, IMF, WTO, EU,...) were once controlled and manipulated in favor of the interests of the dominant national powers (Washington consensus), but today all these institutions, including NATO, are working for the whole of the multinational Guild, and they have become agencies serving "the markets" which do not hesitate to disrupt and ruin the same national powers who once headed these bodies.

Many thinkers on the left have failed to understand this phenomenon. They do not conceive that capital can organize aside from national principles and that is occurring a transfer of sovereignty de facto from the nation States to stateless persons agencies that operate in the service of  multinationals "as a whole". They recognized the universality of capital, the transnationalization, but systematically refuse to recognize that the capital has escaped the confines of the State nation. Multinational monopolies have left substantially their initial national base because multiple relationships and synergies among them bind them with more force than the more lax, residual and distended relationships with their old base States.

Monopolist competition?



Its multinacional-global nature allows monopolies to put in competition, salary adjustments environmental, labour, commercial, tax, criminal, financial regulations, etc. Hence its vaunted 'efficiency' and 'competitiveness'. Efficiency in exploiting and competition suicide among its exploited and outsourced.

Competition and monopoly are like water and oil. "Monopolistic Competition" is an oxymoron of the most classic. Competition, in economy, involves a large number of providers that can not influence the price and have to compete by placing their products on the market. Monopoly means precisely the absence of such competition.

Obviously to achieve monopoly positions is necessary to liquidate opponents. As now the objective was no longer national but global, former national monopolies enter in a fight for global supremacy. In the heat and smoke of the battle, and under the hallucinogenic effects of financialization, it seemed that the process of monopolization of the economy was bringing a total new competitive and healthy air in the form of lower prices for consumers. Business schools sang inflamed neoliberal songs to the newfound "monopolistic competition". (Sic)

The penetration of global monopolies against the outdated 1.0. monopolies was sold as the elixir that would restore competition to the stagnant domestic markets. The Americans were able to buy Japanese cars instead the behemoths on wheels produced in Detroit. Driving a Seat in Spain was now a thing of the grandparents. It seemed as if multinationals have revived the competition in favor of a respected global consumer voting in a global market democracy.

Where this perception became most obvious was in the field of retailer trade . When a Wal-Mart store landed near a city, offering very low prices. In fact it was not competition at all but pure and simple annihilation of smaller competitors and servile submission of providers. What fell from the sky was not the competition in its most pure State but a real wall, a huge barrier to entry against the competition that would forever leave the retailer trade in the claws of Wal-Mart.


Monopoly 'efficiency' and 'competitiveness' ?

The "competitive" market is for subcontractors, for former employees turned into self-employed workers (with an increasingly competitive labour market). The competition is for the not monopolist sector . If there were competition there would not be super revenues  (monopoly rents). The positions of monopoly or oligopoly inhibit competition and are synonymous with super revenues. Once consolidated its positions at global level  monopolists do not compete on price but agreed or dictate prices and collaborate in the tactics and strategies to achieve higher operating levels since benefits them all together.

The monopoly rents are not a result of "monopolistic competition" but of off-shoring, outsourcing, abuse on small and medium-sized enterprises, the externalization of costs, the tax evasion, corruption and manipulation of Governments and national and international institutions, collusion with illegal trafficking and financial speculation.

Its multinacional-global nature allows them to put in competition here and there, salary adjustments environmental, labour, commercial, tax, criminal, financial, ...,  rules. Hence its vaunted 'efficiency' and 'competitiveness'. Exploit efficiency and competition suicide among their broken exploited and outsourced.

Monopolies, Nation-States and Economic Unions


Individuals, States and Nations have become disposable utensils. The "social contract" of phase 1.0. has been broken. The multinational monopolies no longer have a solid national "anchor" as in the 30s or 40s years . Increasingly they depend less on powerful States that defend their interests against competing States. No longer need the services a national workers well fed and educated.

During the permanent depression  2008-? we are not going to see a third world war as that caused by the great depression of the 1930s. We will not see again militarized fascist States nor wars to end the crisis. 2.0 monopolies do not need militarized States to settle their quarrels. The crisis will not strengthen States but, rather, quite the opposite; the State sector and public services represent the last frontier to cannibalize the multinational monopolies.

The most paradigmatic case is the accelerated deterioration of the U.S., of its reserves, its infrastructure, its most essential services, of its legislative system, its currency,..., a State on the path to be transmuted in a quasi private agency servicing the monopolies (and not only the American ones).

The vast majority of large American corporations don't pay taxes. Goldman Sachs paid 1.1% of their revenues in 2008, the same year in which he received a ransom of $ 800 billion and earned 2.3 billion $ in revenues. General Electric paid zero $ in taxes in 2010 despite revenues of $ 10.5 billion. In the United States 69% of corporations are "nontaxable businesses", i.e., they welcome a standard known as "pass through" for which revenues are not recorded when they occur in the company but when are distributed as dividends to shareholders. It is not strange that the total obtained by the corporation tax (35%) in 2010 did not come to 1.3% of GDP USA (6.1% in 1952)

Something similar is underway in the EU. Monopolies are afraid of a social Europe, a united Europe with a single fiscal policy and financial regulations that would put an end to their super-revenues and threaten their bases in tax havens. The continuity of the Euro benefits multinational companies but any social and solidarity way out of the euro-crisis is incompatible with the genetics of monopoly capital.

Multinational monopolies are learning to navigate the turbulent waters of the permanent depression. The lugubrious foreseeable horizon in the current monopolist framework , is the dissolution of the regional economic unions and the progressive degeneration of failed States, entire Nations under the control of mafia gangs that will be replacing institutional order. Everything points to a future in which the institutional business framework of multinationals will not be other than criminal-capitalism.

Extort Nations so they rescue multinational in distress has become a common practice of neoliberal globalization. It is enough to maintain the minimum infrastructure appropriate to their petty interests and everything else is target as superfluous. The successive revelations of WikiLeaks cables reveal as much of the diplomats services from Nations have transmuted into commercial agencies of the large multinational groups to introduce their genetically modified seeds, their expensive drugs, aircraft, armament, let their crimes against the environment go unpunished.

Without any national basis, transnational monopolies do not have the slightest interest in environmental protection. Kyoto, Copenhagen and Cancun,... show how lobbies working for monopolies can more than scientific evidence of the advancing climate disaster and speakers
become ridiculous puppets in their hands.

Private monopolies and offshore paradises



Tax havens are the indispensable crutch of multinationals. Allow them to avoid taxes, wherever they come from. They are their hubs and bases. Its allies are against everything that smacks of democracy or social control. They serve as a cover for environmental and ecological disasters perpetrated by their irresponsible greed.


Multinational monopolies, used basically 3 techniques of tax evasion:

a) moving 'his' intellectual property (patents, brands,...) to subsidiary companies incorporated in tax havens. The subsidiaries no located in tax havens "pay" (deductible expenses) for the patents owned by the fiscal paradise subsidiary

b ) transfer price: All the subsidiaries located in countries where they pay taxes do not record revenue since items will arrive at a cost similar to the selling price charged to final consumers.

In the process of production, transportation and marketing there are involved several subsidiaries billing between themselves. Only obtain profit those recorded in havens fiscales.

c) Profit stripping. Consist in to drain the profits obtained in a country with taxes to a subsidiary in a tax haven (costs for the subsidiary with taxes and revenue for the haven paradise one). A subsidiary in Bermuda lends money at interest to a subsidiary in France. France revenues are reduced to pay the interest to the subsidiary in Bermuda.



The group Fortis in 2008 wielded a prodigious cascade of about 300 subsidiaries registered in tax havens: Fortis Intertrust (BVI), Fortis Investment Management (Cayman Islands) Fortis Commercial Finance (Luxembourg), Fortis Private Wealth Management (Netherlands Antilles), Fortis Foreign Fund Services (Switzerland), JEB Ltd (Liberia), Comanche Ltd (Bahamas), Jasmette Valley Inc (Liechtenstein) of Swilken Holdings (Panama) etc. The list would fill 10 pages.

Bankrupted by the crisis, the entity was taken, after a major injection of public money (11,200 mill €), together with its subsidiaries paradise, by BNP Paribas. Not one euro out of country paradise but the taxpayers of Belgium and the Netherlands, her "national basis."

Not relying on a nation state, multinationals lost interest in strengthening it and, in practice, not even hesitate to weaken, bleeding, de-industrialize, ruin its infrastructure, public services, security, etc. as is happening in the U.S. itself.

Multinationals love only tax havens. Many nations are falling into the hands of gangs and drug lords (whose traffic and finance companies also operate from offices in tax havens) in collusion with politicians and corrupt officials. Offices and members of the mafia and the multinationals, living harmoniously, door to door in tax havens.

Multinationals, law and democracy


They have transformed any agency or democratic structure in their petty interests. They manipulate electoral processes, funding political parties, control or bay medias and distort information.

They have whole sections of lobbying offices in Brussels and Washington. Laws are made ​​and remade according to their interests and convenience. His financial crimes are unpunished while controlling whole prison systems.

In case of resistance resort to the heavy artillery of its international agencies under control (IMF, European Commission, ECB, ...) to take command of the economies of whole countries, replacing the national parliaments and governments imposing the socialization of losses (direct result of the speculation of the same multinationals) and the looting of public property.

While the legal systems adapt to their corporate interests, criminal law is manipulated to avoid any criminal liability for countless atrocities. The most flagrant case is undoubtedly the American criminal law that condemns to 5 years for possession of 5 grams of crack or 100 grams of heroin, and life imprisonment by triple repetition of petty crime (in contrast to only 5 years for possession half a kg. cocaine, the drug of the rich). Legislation tailored to the greed of the multinationals that have transformed the U.S. prison system into a thriving slave business relocated in their own territory (a real gulag of 2 million prisoners working at $ 2 an hour) that produces military equipment, office furniture, medical equipment, aircraft components, ... IBM, Boeing, Motorola, Microsoft, AT & T Wireless, Texas Instrument, Dell, Compaq, Honeywell, Hewlett-Packard, Nortel, Lucent Technologies, 3Com, Intel, Northern Telecom, TWA, Nordstrom's, Revlon, Macy's, Pierre Cardin. ..

They are causing the economic crisis, social and ecological planet. They are responsible for world poverty, global hunger, global depletion of resources, global environmental destruction, the destruction and criminalization of the states (Mexico, Colombia, Guatemala, Russia, countries of Eastern Europe, northern and central countries African, southern Italy, ...).

Multinational and international organizations


They have converted the European Union, the ECB, the World Bank, the IMF, OIC, OECD, WHO, ... in specialized agencies in defending their interests. International agencies catalyze and accelerate the corrosion process to which they are subjecting national democracies. Neoliberal globalization promotes increasing usurpation of national sovereignty to hand it out to supranational companies petty interests (EU, ECB, IMF, WTO, ...) in order to impose a straitjacket for citizens abroad and taxpayers, preventing any democratic resistance to the planned worsening of their social conditions.

All international organizations are being manipulated and converted into subordinate agents in order to ensure an environment (regulatory, economic and political) as favourable as possible to the interests of multinationals. The international agencies are responsible to stop and prevent any local resistance or boycott any attempt to resist.


Monopolies and barriers to entry: patents, intellectual property, marketing, planned obsolescence.


Unlike a medieval monopoly (guilds) or a public one, private capitalist monopolies are carcinogenic organisms that have to grow and grow. They have not enough controlling a specific plot of the market; They must continue hoarding more and more market. But for this it is essential to secure the market share already dominated by raising all kinds of huge barriers to entry  (William Shepherd has studied up to 22 different types of barriers to entry). Building barriers means, often, penetrate markets related to prevent possible future competition (Microsoft into the mobile phone business,...).

The most effective barriers to entry are the intellectual property, patents and marketing.

Intellectual property consists of the granting of a 'temporary' monopoly to the recorder of the patent which allows to obtain monopoly rents above the actual costs of production. Sold as an incentive to creativity (exist other ways of rewarding the researchers and creators: prizes, incentives, public or private,...) when in reality are used as barrier to entry against competition.

Lobbyists at the service of the monopolists are changing laws in "defending the intellectual property and patents". Cargill, Nike, Pfizer, Wal-Mart,... are behind an international treaty (ppt) seeking to establish a strict legislative framework between countries adhered with transnational courts of Justice  to defend the interests of the multinationals against States, prolonging the life of patents up to 70-120 years after the author's death, chasing any circumvention of technological protection measures,  criminalizing the circumvention of such measures even in the case of non-existence of infringement of copyright, the establishment of a system of responsibility of providers of internet services that aims to establish measures of identification of alleged offenders, removal of content and internet disconnection.

Monopolies have transformed marketing as a fundamental tool for building solid and impenetrable barriers to entry.

Marketing monopoly is a multifunctional tool:

  •  - serve to expand the market share (at the expense of the competition, or at the expense of the sanity of the long-suffering consumer)
  • -works as a barrier to entry. Currently, between 70% and 90% of the cost of most of the products that reach the market are costs related to the marketing of waste (advertising, fashion, packaging, product differentiation, a wide range of models,...). A product manufactured by competition, even if it is of much higher quality than the monopolist, may never reach the consumer because of the enormous entry barriers imposed, of which capitalist marketing of waste tends to be the most insurmountable.
  • - as the monopoly aims to grab the "entire" market, also uses another marketing technique: the segmentation of the market: good (expensive) products for the rich and (cheap) products that last little.
  •  - obsolescence planned - for the poor, with fair rents, may be forced to repeat again and again the act of purchase. Both segments end up generating huge amounts of waste (the rich always want the "latest model" of yacht and the poor cannot keep the mercedes, yachts,... disposed of by those). The result of all these tricks is a huge waste of resources and a huge generation of waste and pollution.


Multinationals, nomadism and offshoring


They are responsible for relocation, irrational depredation of natural resources, the irrational polarization of industry and trade to the "havens" of exploitation, "special areas" of human predation.

They corrupt the elites of poor countries to surrender their territories to the depredation of natural resources, pollution and contamination of their environment and the inhuman exploitation of their populations.

They are the true nomads of the century. At the slightest sign of labor resistance multinationals threaten to pack and leave for another country. And, as they can, often just the mere threat is enough to subject their employees to their draconian working conditions.

Wal-Mart, the world's largest company, is responsible (along with its rivals, Kmart Corporation, Costco, Carrefour, Eroski , ...) of the desertification of the industrial and commercial states and entire countries, the ruthless exploitation of the labor force so that suppliers are forced to relocate their plants, and the ruin of farmers submitted to ridiculous prices.

The decent jobs disappear once the sector is engulfed by a multinational. Whether it is telecommunications, textile, computers, ..., workers are subject to the laws of offshore exploitation. Wages and working conditions go down as profit and the earnings of top executives go up. When a multinational company fired 1,000 workers, their actions are triggered automatically on the Stock Exchange.

But it's not only employees of multinationals, small and medium businesses eventually succumb to the increasingly vast outsourcing networks . The monopoly position allows to extort small suppliers forcing them to battle a civil war as if they were gladiators. This is the "efficiency" of the monopolies praised by Economy Nobel Prizes of neoliberalism (Hicks, Hayek, Friedman, Stigler, Coase, Williamson)

Multinationals and Innovation


They distort innovation to fit their myopic interests (usually are experts in exploiting the innovation of others). Once earned monopoly positions in certain sectors (oil, pharmaceuticals, nuclear energy, computers ...) and built the corresponding entry barriers delay or prevent innovation to maintain its privileged monopoly.

They prefer the guaranteed return of the chronically ill to investigate healing drugs or vaccines. They prefer centralized nuclear power to renewables. Hamper public transport, electric motor cars, ... to maintain their super profits. His innovation is often perverse as it advances in fields whose sole purpose is to submit, blackmail, exploitation and, ultimately, to consolidate their positions of privilege. Pharmaceutical, tobacco and agribusiness are flooding the planet with "innovative" toxic and addictive products to subdue and control of producers and consumers.

They appropriate the public and social knowledge of indigenous cultures, biodiversity, ... enforcing patents here and there, putting all kinds of barriers and compartments to free flow of ideas and therefore hampering the very essence of innovation.

Monopolies and Internet


Information is a public good by nature a community to which everyone should be able go to feed our brains. The consumption of an individual does not preclude its use for the rest of his fellows. It's like air or water.

The early Internet represented an unexplored field similar to the great American West for newcomers settlers. It was a vast "public" territory, a new continent of knowledge and the possibility of a huge democratic sphere of exchange of communication without barriers or restrictions.

Privatize and curb anything public has always been the innate sport of monopoly capital. Anything that is not scarce is not business. The idealized "conquest of the West" was basically to generate huge shortages fencing and privatizing public lands.

Something similar is happening on the Internet. Gradually, the area of information exchange and knowledge is being parceled out, fenced, "protected", subdivided, ... Its use-value of universal access (public) is quickly becoming exchange value of restricted and controlled access (private).

AT & T recently purchased a T-Mobile (wireless provider) so absorbing 75% of the U.S. market. AT & T is an avowed opponent of "net neutrality". Net neutrality has so far ensured that all data is transported without any discrimination to the same speed on the Internet. AT & T aims to destroy that neutrality to turn the Internet into a toll road benefiting large corporations and leaving small guys out of the high-speed track. With its acquisition of T-Mobile will enjoy a monopoly position enough to impose their designs.

The abundance of information in the network is not a "commodity", is not a business. Monopolistic logic requires generating monopoly shortage. The business is made ​​from the scarcity and in the case of Internet, the shortage must be created. It is artificial scarcity and thus requires the intervention of public institutions in collusion with monopoly capital and this is what is happening. From the hand of the legislator submissive and in a climate increasingly prone to globalization, monopoly capital rule over the information sector with unprecedented speed and forcefulness.

Externalization of costs, global environmental depredation


The entire planet becomes fodder for the unlimited greed of multinationals. The North Pole is threatened to death by the oil companies. They pollute with impunity seas and oceans. Its radioactive nuclear elements infest the atmosphere while the chemical waste infest waters and soils in Europe, North America, Asia, Africa and South America.

They operate outside society and outsourced much of its costs. They operate in a a-social and a-democratic dimension, avoiding any responsibility for his misdeeds .

From a certain size, large multinational corporations do not obey any one except its own corporate logic. Its seems even its powerful managers can't resist this irrational and predatory logic. J. Van der Veer, chief executive and head absolute Shell is a Dutch friendly, polite and sensitive guy and the Netherlands is a country socially advanced and concerned about the environment and climate change that could be submerged under the waters of the Atlantic, but this does not preclude for the Anglo-Dutch company acts as an implacable juggernaut with a genetic code programmed to destroy biodiversity, human rights and environmental sustainability of the planet.


Monopoly and Competition in Twenty-First Century Capitalism,
The Internet’s Unholy Marriage to Capitalism
The Internationalization of Monopoly Capital

2/24/2010

ARGENTINA 2001 vs SPAIN 2011

The irrational rationality of the markets resembles that of a chicken farmer. Feed the hen when it lays eggs. When it stops laying, slaughter it, pluck it, quarter it, and eat it. Argentine external debt 2002 0.14 billion 54% of GDP.


Spanish external debt 2011 2.3 billion 165% of GDP.

Zapatero (22 September 2010) “I believe that the debt crisis affecting Spain and the Eurozone in general has already passed.

Edward Huhg (a bonobo crossed with a neo-Malthusian chimpanzee). “If we intend to adopt a labour reform to bring about an end to the devaluation of internal competitiveness, we ought to contemplate a far more radical reform. Spanish workers should take on board the idea that they should embark on a second career after they reach 55 years of age for as long as their bodies can take it. The majority of workers over 55 have the necessary skills to form a part of a growth model possessing a high added-value, and ought to be employed in the areas which today are dominated by immigrants, accepting the same pay and conditions as they do.

The crises in Argentina and Spain have a gap of ten years between them.

In 1989, the Menem government with Domingo Cavallo, the Harvard educated Super minister of Economy, fixed the exchange rate at 1 peso to 1 US dollar in a new article of the Argentine constitution. The markets celebrated this initiative and for a while Argentina ‘enjoyed’ a veritable avalanche of cheap international credit.

The Euro was introduced into the world financial markets as a currency on 1 January 1999, the old national currencies remained as a medium of payment until 1 January 2002.)

In the case of Spain both the rhythm and volume of indebtedness were far higher than those of Argentina. After the dotcom crash the markets inflated the mother of all bubbles in the property market. Whilst Argentina took the opportunity to return to the path of growth through exports of primary materials, Euro- Spain placed itself at the head of sub-prime property speculation thanks to the market’s cheap credit available to the Spanish banking system.

The Argentine Crisis

As was the case in Spain, the fixed rate with the dollar brought enormous external debt to the Argentine economy. Financial crises followed. The Mexican crisis of 1994-5, South East Asia, Russia and Brazil. Investors took refuge in the dollar which appreciated against other currencies. Argentinian exports suffered and the suspicious markets raised interest rates for Argentina up to 20%.

At the end of the 1990’s, recession, indebtedness and cuts of every kind brought with them an unprecedented social disaster. Of a total of 36 million Argentinians, 14 million subsisted in poverty.

The new government of Fernando de la Rua came into power in October 1999. The IMF came to the rescue with a bailout (of the markets), promising a loan of $ 1000 million in return for a harsh plan of structural adjustment. In June 2000 a 35 day General Strike paralysed the country.

The money was not to be made available unless the government put into effect by decree the measures imposed by the troika of the IMF, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. On 23 November 2000 the government, by decree, dismantled what remained of public services, pensions were privatised, social security was deregulated, labour reforms made, the health system was privatised….

In December 2000 the troika congratulated the government on having ‘done its homework’ and announced a new ‘assistance plan’ for a total of $39 700 million to be released over three years in return for following the path of cuts.

The return of $ Cavallo (a specimen similar to de Guindos) as Minister of Economy led to rises in the stock exchange and euphoria in the markets that accepted a transformation of short-term debt to the long-term at usurious interest rates.

In return the government promised to achieve a zero deficit in 2001. A reduction in salaries (15%) and of pensions over $500 followed. Internal consumption slumped and thousands of SME’s closed down. Unemployment shot up to 25%. Tax revenue fell 11.6% in November 2001. The troika refused to release the tranches agreed in assistance plan citing the ‘timidity’ of the cuts.

The Spanish Crisis

Spain and the Euro

Under the peseta, a sharp deterioration of the commercial balance was impossible because the markets did not dare to lend too much given the risk of devaluation. The Spanish market was the private hunting ground of the local banking system which lent at high rates of interest (mortgages of 14% in accordance with its own deposits).

Graph Medium and long-term obligations issued by Spanish banks.

With the Euro as the Spanish currency, the risk of devaluation disappeared. The markets considered lending to Spanish banks to be good business so as to unleash a property bubble along the lines of those being inflated in USA, Ireland, Iceland and Eastern Europe. The German and French banks, besides participating in the US sub-prime market, threw themselves enthusiastically into the Spanish fiesta. Without their greedy participation the situation would never have reached such monstrous proportions.

Graph 1. Shares issued by Spanish banks 2.Loans as percentage of deposits.

The Spanish banking system lacked sufficient ammunition of its own (deposits of residents) to inflate the mortgage bubble and so opted to indebt itself up to the neck to the international financial system (having learnt or having been taught to issue mortgages). We are often told that the Spanish banks are not exposed to US sub-prime mortgages but the system itself has been converted into a gigantic factory churning out its own home-grown sub-prime mortgages to feed the Central European globalised finance casino.

Graph Spanish private debt as percentage of GDP

In a few years Spain became the third most privately indebted nation in the world (with a total debt of 366% of GDP). The private sector reached a level of external debt of $ 0.7 billion (310% of GDP). This made Spain a country at systemic risk.

Graph. Total debt by country

Phases of the crisis and changes of strategy

First phase. Camouflage and cosmetics

At the beginning it was believed that the crisis would be a passing event (green shoots of growth). When the bubble burst, in Spain, unlike in the majority of other countries, not a single financial body failed. Hymns of praise were sung to the health of the economy and the proverbial lack of exposure to the international financial crisis. Meanwhile in the USA, Lehman Brothers fell and other banks followed daily. The strategy employed in Spain was the following;

1. No bank or caja should be allowed to go bankrupt. Using accounting manipulations, bank balances were fiddled to present a picture of rude health. It was put about that although there were a few black sheep, the banking system as a whole was solvent.

2. Camouflage and cosmetics. The worst entities were fused with the least damaged and the whole diluted with the help of the FROB and the Deposit Guarantee Fund. The intention was to avoid at all costs any loss to creditors of the banking system, whether internal or external. In the new fused entities the toxic investments remained guaranteed by FROB under the share protection scheme. In effect FROB became the shareholder of the failed banks. FROB became indebted to the European fund, that is to say the taxpayers are now absorbing the losses of the private banks, in particular the losses of the French and German banks.

3. Plan E of Zapatero. This strategy can be summed up as giving subsidies and aid to slow down defaults and failures to pay whilst riding out the storm. Whilst in other countries property prices plummeted, in Spain property prices dropped very slowly as the banks refinanced mortgages and developers or held onto properties without auctioning them, The markets direct the orchestra and the Spanish banking system dances to the tune sporting its Sunday best although it has been left without any underwear.

Phase 2. Cuts squared

When it became clear that the crisis wasn’t passing but had come to stay, the nervous markets changed their strategy. Plan E plus camouflage and cosmetics has been a huge error. Concealing the poor condition of the banking system was achieved at the cost of exponentially increasing the deficit and public debt leaving the public sector with insufficient capacity to absorb the enormous losses and ruin of the private financial sector. Financial wizards and stress tests could no longer disguise the damage.

In addition, the nervousness of the markets was increasing the magnitude of the crisis given that the massive rise in interest rates threatened to exceed the growth of GDP, a clear indication of the bankruptcy of the country.(Greece and Ireland).

By mid-2010 the situation had become unsustainable with the danger of a domino effect coming into play, led by Greece. A rescue package was created for Greece. The exposure of the Central European banks to the PIIGS is enormous (loans to the public and private sector). Ireland owes 0.644 billion, Portugal 0.134 billion, Greece 0.166 billion and Spain 0.781 billion. (Spain needs to refinance 0.546 billion until 2013).

To avoid imminent catastrophe a European Rescue Fund was established, the EFSF, a type of terrible financial super-bazooka, that in order to be capable of 'dissuading the attacks of the markets', ought to amount to well over a million Euros. In the end its capacity for dissuasion remained doubtful as it was not even able to gather half the necessary gunpowder.

In view of the imminent débâcle (default of Spain and /or Italy), the ECB abandoned its traditional codes of practice, buying Spanish and Italian bonds by the ton, and more recently (at the end of 2011) offering a free bar to the banking system (a limited provision of credit at 1% for three years to the private banks in two rounds of 0.5 billion each). In this way the rickety banking system was able to refinance the debt to the Central European banks until 2013. In addition the ECB would acquire Spanish public debt at 5% thus relaxing the pressure of the markets and taking a rake off from the difference in interest rates.

In this way Spain has been rescued and of course intervened in by the ECB. The levers of control of the Spanish economy have been in the hands of the troika (ECB, the European Commission and the IMF) for some time. The only concerns of the troika are to minimize and /or compensate for the financial losses of the ruling gambling addicts and bubble merchants at the expense of the Spanish taxpayer and to apply shock therapy to push through privatisation of public services in the peninsula, which they intend to share out amongst the handful of multinationals which control the European hunting grounds.

In contrast to the USA, Britain, Ireland or Greece, in Spain the majority of the financial losses incurred during the property bubble (0.2 billion) have not yet been socialised. Ireland socialised the losses of its banks and was rescued. Spain, on the other hand, has been rescued without socialising the losses which have been steadily multiplying over time. The ‘financial reform’ means that Spain has to offer up accounts to the markets for the enormous hole dug by the insatiably greedy financial system. And so we have to listen to the tiresome refrain that ‘we’re all in the same boat’, that ‘we have to do our home work’ and so on ad nauseam.

De Guindos, an expert in creative accounting a la Goldman Sachs, is trying to camouflage the situation so that the socialisation of losses does not weigh upon the compromised deficit. Instead the losses are being disguised and transferred directly to public debt by the manipulation of the guarantees of the FROB, advances of the bank quotas to the Deposit Guarantee Fund etc.

As in the case of Argentina with D Cavallo, the underlying strategy of the troika and the markets lies in forcing the immediate socialisation of losses so that they appear to be flowering in the shaky balances of the banks, cutting salaries (labour reform), laying off civil servants, privatising public services, pulverising pension systems, social security, public health. Cuts on top of cuts, cuts squared. Spain has to go to jail for its debts and it looks like it will be serving a life sentence.

In Argentina, the carrot was successive rescue packages (similar to the Greek case). In the Spanish variant the carrot is the risk premium. Up goes the premium and the constitution is changed, up goes the premium and we get labour reform 2.0. A depressive budget is presented and up goes the premium the same day because the cuts to education, health and pensions are not considered sufficient. Prior to 'labour reform 2.0' the premium went up because it was considered 'timid and insufficient'.

How long are we going to go on like this? Are we going to have a Latin American style decade with a debt crisis creating terrifying percentages of crime and poverty? Under capitalism decades are not linear; either they go up or down. In 2012 we have unemployment figures over 5 million, in 2022 we will have ? million unemployed. Does anyone know what the recuperation in 2022 will look like?

Argentina. Getting out of the crisis (A clever hen)

On December 3 2001 the government imposed a bank freeze. On 12 December the seventh General Strike since the adoption of parity with the dollar was called. Pot banging, streets blocked, supermarkets looted, seven dead and hundreds injured. De la Rua declared a state of emergency. There were 4 500 detentions and 34 dead, but the social mobilisation did not stop and on 20 December de la Rua abandoned the Casa Rosa in a helicopter.

Josep Piqué. “Argentina needs to overcome, as soon as possible, the unorthodox and short-term socio-economic measures in order to recover a state of normality which would allow the recession to come to an end.”

On 2 January 2002 parity with the dollar was abandoned. The mobilisations and protests continued and the new government feared social explosion more than the threats of the IMF, the USA and the markets. The IMF threatened to stop lending any more assistance and gave Argentina a year to repay its debt, although later it reconsidered and announced a loan of $ 710 million for the government to finance the provincial government debt (civil servants were receiving their salaries in debt vouchers issued by the provincial government). In exchange Dualde promised more cuts, Unemployment shot up to 25%..

Meanwhile the devaluation of the peso (30%) punished the foreign investors in the privatised public services who were demanding increases of between 40% and 260% in tariffs. On the other hand prices of imported products shot up. Social mobilisation continued, now under the catchphrase ‘Que se vayan todos’ (Get out the lot of you). On 26 June 2000, after a picket line was attacked resulting in two new deaths, Dualde resigned. In December 2002 more than 100 000 people paraded in Buenos Aires demanding a popular assembly to change the roots of the economic system,

On 25 May N Kirschner announced an increase of 50% in the minimum wage and expansive budgets to stimulate demand and economic activity. A little later he summoned the markets and agreed a 75% write off of the debt. The Argentinian economy recovered speedily and strengthened thanks to the stab to the global property bubble. Spain. Exit from the crisis

Those of you who know, please put down your plan in the comments section.

RUSSIA CAPITALISM II Lee Raymond (CEO of Exxon-Mobil 1993-2005). “We are not an American company and I do not take decisions based on what is good for the USA. Anders Anslud. “The biggest story of corruption in human history” John Browne (former Managing Director of BP). The problem is not the lack of laws but their selective application. This is what creates the feeling of anarchy. Whilst legalistic bureaucratic processes continue to be the distinctive hallmark of Russia, one never knows if someone is going to turn a blind eye or if the laws were correctly applied. Russian capitalism 1.0 Capitalism was introduced into Russia in the XIX Century. We are dealing with an already mature form of capitalism which had already experienced its first industrial revolution. As in the USA and other countries, it was capitalism compatible with the strengthening of the nation state. It was installed and prospered with the creation of a national industrial nucleus, protected against external competition by tariff barriers. It was also capitalism with advanced monopolist characteristics in which trusts and holdings dominated the panorama and forced states to engage in imperialist wars. Metalworkers at the end of XIX Century One of its leaders was Sergei Witte, the minister in charge of supervising the building of the trans-Siberian railway. A follower of Fredrich List, he wanted a strongly protected domestic industry for Russia and defended the passing of protectionist legislation. He also promoted the modernisation of the education system (business schools) to improve technical training in the country and in 1887, passed a law limiting working hours in factories. His attempts to reform agriculture brought him up against the nobility and he fell from power in 1903. The first capitalist penetration into Russia was a long and complex historical process of assault and remodelling of the state, which in the end failed after the disaster of World War I and the resistance of the population to being turned into cannon fodder. Russian Capitalism 2.0 The capitalism which was reintroduced into Russia at the end of the XX Century had very different characteristics. In the new trans-national monopolist capitalism, nation states no longer constituted the base and principal lever of the corporations, but were mere accessories, interchangeable and to a certain extent unnecessary. For capitalism 2.0 the USSR constituted a vast and rich communal territory to loot which had up until then resisted its advances. In contrast to the first failed experiment, the second capitalist conquest of the USSR by ‘shock therapies’ and ‘express’ privatisation, was a lightening process of infection, dismemberment and de-structuring, which lasted less than five years. Russia was almost instantly converted into a corrupt mafia economy, fuel dependent and on the periphery of trans-national monopoly capitalism. There was no ‘transition’ in any sense of the word. Transnational monopoly capitalism does not require a nation state to operate. The institutional juridical framework, laws and public regulations, the social contract and national magna cartas are often a waste of time and an obstacle to business competitiveness and appropriation of added value. An opportunity for neoliberalism to loot on such a scale doesn’t arise every day. The reconquest of Russia was designed and planned to make it the biggest capitalist orgy ever seen. First loot, dismantle, privatise, steal, accumulate…there is plenty of time later for the tedious business of administration, and the construction of laws and rules which neoliberal capitalism finds so abhorrent. Day and night capitalism 2.0 picked through the ruins of the soviet state without providing any alternative institutional juridical framework. The grotesque privatisation theft of public wealth without the existence of even the minimal legal framework or juridical security led to a lightening escalation, enormous and unprecedented, of criminal activity given the legal loopholes and lack of economic regulation. The dismantling of institutions which protected public property was not followed up with an alternative which would protect private property and contracts. The obvious answer in the face of the institutional vacuum and the lack of security and legal protection was to go in search of the support and protection from Russian organised crime which evolved ‘spontaneously’ to become the principal bulwark of the private capitalist economy, the defender of illegally acquired public property, the guarantor of the validity of financial and commercial contracts, becoming a sort of arbitrage system in the shadows which sustained the new capitalist order and is able to dictate and force the adherence to basic norms so as to reduce uncertainty in exchange and business. In the 1990’s more than 70% of the contracts made were signed outside the legal framework. The growth in the number of criminal gangs involved in business violence was spectacular. In 1991 there were 952 criminal groups, in 1992, 4 300 in 1993, 5 691. The explosive emergence of organised crime during the first years of the 1990’s can be considered an informal institutional response to protect property rights and contracts, the necessary third leg of the stool for the correct functioning of the new neoliberal order. Financial-Industrial Groups FIG’s Terminal neoliberal bubble capitalism is profoundly short-termist. Financial speculation dominates and takes first place in front of the real economy which is increasingly forced to play a secondary role as the base of the hyper-leveraged financial casino. It is its absolute irresponsibility for the criminal consequences of its attacks, bubbles and bursts, swindles, shock therapies, labour reforms, constitutional reforms, thefts of shares, salaries pensions and savings… that makes it the worst system of social organisation ever devised. As the results of its envestida are unavoidable the degeneration of Russian capitalism into a mafia certainly fails to meet all the criteria hoped for in the field of law and order to consolidate the penetration of transnational monopolies and financial capital. One alternative to a ‘failed state’ is the creation of clans which try to usurp the functions which would otherwise be carried out by a consolidated state. In the absence of valid institutions social groups tend to reorganise themselves gathering in tribal structures, clans or groups following a code of criminal obedience such as the mafias. The planet is filling up with substitute structures or alternatives to the nation state model which work in parallel to the state the majority of its functions. Something like this has taken place in Russia; No new capitalist state administration has been constructed above the erased slate of the Soviet system which is capable of operating in the trustworthy or functional fashion required by transnational monopolist capital. After ten years of chaos during which the Russian people were reduced to the cruellest misery and lost more than ten million souls what has emerged is a corrupt and necessary pseudostate which shares power between an amalgamation of mafia clans which interact and share out business via ‘Financial Industrial Groups.’ The emergence of the FIG’s During the first round of privatisation (1993 to 94) 16 500 public companies (two thirds of the total) were privatised through a system of vouchers or certificates shared between the directors, the workers and the Russian citizens (capitalism of the people). The freeing of prices in January 1992 set off a huge inflation which depreciated savings deposits in the banks by 99%. The companies, now without state contracts, were unable to continue paying their workers. The majority of the ‘peoples capitalists’ found themselves obliged to sell their vouchers cheaply to the few who had ready money. By 1994 three quarters of the companies had passed into the private hands of corrupt officials and gangsters. People’s capitalism had come to an end. Appropriation, hoarding, dismemberment and the sharing out of public shares by kleptocratic criminal groups at the centre of decision making was the tonic for the privatisation process. For this reason Yeltsin shelled the parliament in 1993, a body which had shown itself too fond of popular capitalism. Potanin, Chubais and other Yeltsin cronies, now freed from parliamentary control, designed a plan in the spring and summer of 1995 by which the Russian government would receive loans from the Russian bank guaranteed by shares in the main strategic industries (petrol, energy, gold, diamonds, nickel). In the event of the government failing to repay the loans, the banks would have the right to auction the shares of the companies. The loans for shares plan has been cited as the largest robbery in history. From the beginning it was a planned operation of the theft of shares, organised by and for a group of future oligarchs, drawn from a small circle of corrupt officials in collusion with organised crime. As was foreseen from the very beginning, the Russian government was unable to repay the loans by the set date. They were placed on auction where those participating were individuals or companies controlled by the same banks. In all cases the share packages were picked up for a small sum above the derisory starting price. The corrupt and penniless government requested loans from the banks (controlled by mafias and oligarchs) guaranteeing the loans with monopolies and public companies. Onexim Bank, controlled by V. Potanin, one of designers of the plan, picked up 34% of Norilsk Nickel (producer of a fifth of the nickel and two-fifths of the platinum in the world) for $170,1 million (the 0,1 represented the plus which was paid on top of the starting price of the auction. In 2003 its price was estimated at $53 000 million. Other companies auctioned were Sibneft (oil) acquired for $100, 3 million, Sidanko (oil) .for $130 million, Yukos, (one of the biggest oil producers in the world) which was acquired by the bank Menatep owned by Mijail Khordorkovski for $159 million. After the division of the spoils seven ‘bankers’ had obtained control of 50% of the Russian economy. Once the cake was cut up (Yukos , Sibneft etc.) a privileged group of oligarchs was created, Potanin,,,,,,,,,,,,,M Prokhorov with enormous resources to support the political and economic course laid down by Yeltsin (re-election in 1996). Consolidation of the FIG’s At the end of the 90’s organised crime had achieved substantial control over the privatised businesses thanks to its role as the arbitrator and guarantor of the system, resolving corporate disputes, ensuring the payments of debts and fulfilment of contracts. They also began to provide loans to entrepreneurs (start ups) and businesses, exchanging loans for shares and ended up controlling many of their clients. After privatisation a few monopolist, mafia-dependent, industrial structures, with highly concentrated capital completely dominated the social and economic panorama in Russia. R.M Gates, the former director of the CIA, estimated in 2001 that two-thirds of commerce, 80% of banking, a good part of the stock exchange and 150 large public corporations were controlled by organised crime. 40% of the GNP was in the hands of the mafia in connivance with corruption. After privatisation, Financial Industrial Groups immediately sprung up, amalgams of monopolies and banks which claimed to be Russian versions of Japanese keiretsu or South Korean chaebol. In reality these business structures worked as clans linked to specific groups of organised crime. The principal FIG’s were Inkombank Group, Most-Bank Group, SBS-Agro Group, Oneximbank Group, Rossiyski Kredit Group etc. By the mid-90’s there were 27 large FIG’s that concentrated 446 corporations (65 banks) and had more than 2 million employees. Many of these FIG’s remained under the control of organised crime from the time of their foundation. On the behalf of the principal FIG’s, there formed a cloud of minor FIG’s on the bank-corporation model in each and every sector of the economy with the banks operating as financial managers (money laundering) and as a source of information at the service of criminal groups. At the head of each group there are businesses of a monopolist character joined with one or several banks. At the second level are grouped secondary firms and a third level of subsidiaries. A key element of the group is a structured lobbying organisation which seeks to promote its interests to the state bodies. The management and control as well as the appropriation of the major part of the income is concentrated in a small number of individuals who possess between 30 and 50% of the shares of the group. These FIG’s administer and control the social infrastructure (clinics, outpatient centres, kindergartens, housing, Trades Unions) of their employees, operating as true clans. A telling feature of the structure of the clan is that the banks can retain the wages of the employees for months to use in speculation which can bring in (or not) additional income for the clan. It is also not unusual to divert the wages owed to support electoral campaigns of candidates who are favourable to the clans. It is a complicated system of mutual financial connections between businesses, banks and regional or federal government agencies and above all the personal connections of the clan. In this way the clan structures constitute the basis of political power. The intersection of interests between both spheres of power is often complex. Some clans support various parties simultaneously and many parties have the support of various clans. What gives these clans solidity is their wide links with organised crime. Although there is a certain degree of formal economic competition between them the struggle is largely informal. The important things are personal connections, pacts and agreements to divide up the markets and spheres of influence, the establishment of ‘rules’, pacts of competition etc. apart from the usual criminal practices of blackmail, bribery murders etc. It is a battle between forces trying to regulate the market. Each clan tries to regulate the market in its favour and the strongest clan, not the most competitive producer, is the one that wins. In no other case in history has organised crime achieved such economic and political power as in the neo-capitalist countries of the former Soviet Union. So much corruption at the highest level can have no other result than to create a perfect symbiotic relationship between the official administration and organised crime. The Russians inhabit a neoliberal capitalist medium in which illegality is most rewarded and sought after and in which organised crime has taken over the function of control and government of society. The arbitration of Putin and stabilisation The rise of Putin took place during the period of hyper-depression, with GNP in free-fall, 80% of the population in poverty, President Yeltsin drunken, kleptomaniac and ill, the organised crime groups entrenched in the majority of the economic sectors warring amongst one another and chilling levels of corruption. Putin embodied arbitration as the sine qua non to maintain the new status quo. The new state reorganised by Putin and his associates works as the arbitrator of the post-Soviet clan structure by establishing itself as the most powerful clan. With scarcely any tangible income, the Russian state was dissolving like a sugar lump. At the behest of the markets and the international agencies Putin recovered for the state part of the income from energy which was being hijacked by some of the mafia clans (forced bankruptcy and nationalisation of Yukos, the arrest of Mikhail Khordorkovsky and the Gazprom monopoly) and ensured himself of the backing of the majority of the oligarchs (Genaddy Timchenko, Vladimir Yakunin, Yurly Kovalchuk, Sergey Chemezov) He also renationalised shares in the hands of foreign multinationals. Royal Dutch Shell and its Japanese associates found themselves obliged to cede their holdings in the promising joint venture, Sakhalin II, to exploit the rich oil and gas fields. BP were compelled to cede the rich gas field of Kovykta (in Eastern Siberia) to Gazprom. In 2003 the state controlled only 10% of oil production. In 2008 44% of oil production had returned to the pubic sector which also controlled 85% of gas production. Has Putin created a vertical command structure of the Prussian or Soviet type? A sort of restoration of authority? The reality is more prosaic. Putin’s state is Putin’s clan. What there is in all instances of the Russian mafia state is a complex web of client loyalties in which everyone works frenetically for their own ends and in which some cover or protect others or share the tasks (for example the police and army extort and receive protection moneyfrom small businesses whilst the secret services -FSB- have exclusive rights over the large corporations. There is no political rivalry between a supposed liberal wing (Mendev would be the standard bearer) and a statist wing (sioviki or pro-Putin). The reality behind the thick curtains of the press and the TV is not an ideological struggle but a shadowy illegal war between a dozen mafia clans which use every type of trick to control the maximum portion of income and cash flows which the system produces. It is competition between competitors with the same purposes and objectives. A common objective is the appropriation of a business by a rival clan (raiderstvo) which is a well documented phenomenon in Russia. Very often the manipulation and abuse of apparently legitimate mechanisms such as bankruptcy or criminal trials are the preferred methods to gain control of (steal) businesses. Raiderstvo could not exist without the direct support and connivance of the authorities, the prosecutors, the police and the courts. The same Russian state authorities have brought about a multitude of acquisitions of private businesses using similar means. More than 100 000 businessmen are imprisoned at present, and one in six businessmen report having been victims of criminal attack. The raiders falsify the power of attorney and illegally transfer corporate shares or start frivolous judicial actions and pay the judges to award the claimants millions of dollars in damages. Plots to force bankruptcy, judicial plots, falsification of land deeds….. are all commonly used tactics. To lose your place in this network could mean ruin and prison and this also goes for the highest ranking members. The apparent 'stability' has more to do with the enormous danger inherent in leaving someone else in charge or leaving a department than anything else. The anti-prevarication laws, courts and judges exist to destroy and liquidate anyone who falls out of favour with the mafia customer networks. If there is any type of hierarchy or verticality in Russia today it is impunity. If you are a member of the FBS (secret service) you can also work as a hit man given that your official job ensures you total impunity in your second job. In this manner, the peculiar stabilisation of Putin, the depreciation of the rouble and the meteoric rise in prices of primary materials and fossil fuels pulled the country out of hyper-depression and the abyss of a failed state. Between 1999 and 2008 Russian GNP grew at an average rate of 8%. In 2004 The GNP had regained the level of 1991. Once the initial predatory euphoria had passed and after the de-structuring, dismantling and dismembering and sharing out of the pubic shares had taken place the markets and the multinationals are not totally pleased with the present situation given the arrogant precipitation and criminal greed. A few doses of corruption, illicit trafficking, prevarication and fiscal fraud sit fairly well with the current multinational capitalist system. Business schools teach that a certain amount of informality rejuvenates and makes capitalism more dynamic. Failed states and criminal capitalism, however, do not sit too well with the majority of businesses. This is the present dilemma facing the stabilisation achieved by Putin. Russia was on the point of turning into a (nuclear) failed state at the end of the 90’s. Putin’s stabilisation avoided disaster but converted Russia into a criminal capitalist state, diverting a good part of the shares and flows of income from the habitual channels of accumulation of neoliberal monopoly capitalism. The Russian Matrix Neoliberal politicians and economists confirm that Russia and the old eastern bloc countries have been ‘normalised’ thanks to the advice and guidance of the IMF and other neoliberal agencies (G7). In any case the neoliberal ‘transitionology’ accuses the soviet legacy for the strange deformities of present Russian capitalism. The normalisation of Russia is explained in the following way: 1. The transition has not been too catastrophic a process. The depression was fairly mild (more of a recession) and the economy rapidly recovered (by 2003 GNP had recuperated the level of 1989). 2. What was to blame, in any case, was not Yeltsin’s rapid liberalisation and the shock therapies of the IMF and other neoliberal agencies (G7), but the nature of the soviet system itself, which caused its collapse and subsequent depression. The rapid liberalisation led to greater ills being avoided. 3. The escalation of organised crime together with galloping corruption was the heritage of the soviet system. 4. These countries have crossed over from the shadow of an authoritarian centrally planned economy to a virtuous democratic system of free enterprise in which consumer demand governs the supply beneath the rule of law and in which wages and income are fixed by negotiation in accordance with the law of supply and demand. 5. Criminality has been reducing over time. The oligarchs and kleptocrats who looted and appropriated the soviet patrimony have been transformed, in the same way as the robber barons John Rockefeller and JP Morgan, into first class entrepreneurial businessmen, true motors of westernisation. 6. The old countries of the Soviet Union have been converted into economies with large middle classes advancing rapidly towards the status of developed western economies. 1. The transition has not been too catastrophic a process. The depression was fairly mild (more of a recession) and the economy rapidly recovered. The post-Soviet hyper-depression (1990-98) was much deeper than the American Great Depression and cost the lives of 10 million Russians. Sovietologists used to accuse the soviet statistics of being exaggerated (the tendency of the planned system to provide good production results). CIA statistics recalculated the data presented between 1913 and 1987 to show a median growth of 4% per year in GNP in roubles (1917-1987, 4,7 % in dollars). Angus Maddison, one of the specialists in the Soviet economy who most cut back the official statistics, published his results in 2003 which showed figures of a drop in GNP of 45% between 1989 and 1998 and an unemployment level of 25%. The reality of the hyper-depression was not only a matter of numbers. Sociological studies show an unprecedented increase in deaths (3,4 million died prematurely between 1990 and 1998) caused by privation and misery in the absence of wars, pandemics or other extraordinary factors. The hyper-depression shown by Maddison’s figures was real and lethal. The addendum to the hyper-depresson was the neoliberal bubble of 1996-1998 and the subsequent crash. The Russian administration was financing its growing expenditure with loans from foreign countries. The foreign investors acquired Russian debt in exchange for high interest rates. Solely to be able to pay the interest on these, the Russian government began to ask for loans in the form of short-term bonds (GKO’s). To be able to attract nervous investors they had to put the interest higher and higher. In May 1997 they paid interest rates of over 150% per year. After the re-election of Yeltsin the government allowed the purchase of GKO’s by foreigners. Chase Manhattan, US, Credit Suisse, First Boston, Republic Bank… threw themselves into the hunt for GKO’s. In order to pay the interest the government issued further GKO’s. It was a typical Ponzi pyramid scheme. The new loans paid the interest on the previous ones. The foreign and Russian participants in the GKO casino made fortunes whilst the orgy lasted. The GKO’s were so lucrative that the Russian banks themselves invested in them instead of making commercial loans. On October 6 1997 the principal Russian stock exchange index reached its historic maximum (571 points, a year later it would fall to 37 points) making it the strongest emergent financial market on the planet. But the Russian dream lasted only a short time. With the hangover of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 the investors began to withdraw silently, converting their rouble shares into dollars. Nevertheless, in spite of the warning signs the markets believed that Russia was too ‘nuclear’ to fail. Bank of America, Credit Suisse, First Boston Corp., Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Citibank had lent huge sums to the speculators. In May 1998 Larry Summers convinced Clinton to obtain an extraordinary contribution of $10 000 million from Congress to the IMF to ‘save capitalism in Russia’. In spite of this Goldman Sachs took out a subscription of Eurobonds worth $1,025 million which were fully subscribed. In August the Moscow stock exchange was forced close a few times because of falls of over 10%. Liquidity disappeared from the market. The Russian government declared itself bankrupt, announced a unilateral suspension of payment of GKO’s and allowed the rouble to float. Bank deposits were frozen by decree- two months of corralito. In less than 24 hours the sudden fall of the rouble made prices shoot up - and debit cards ceased to function. Dozens of banks closed and disappeared (only a handful of banks controlled by the mafia and the oligarchs were rescued by the Russian Central Bank). In a few days the savings of the Russian citizens evaporated. Unable to withdraw their savings the citizens could only watch helplessly as their value diminished with the rouble. Those that had not lost their job found that they could not receive their wages. When they were finally paid, their wages had lost two-thirds of their value (the average fall was between $160 and $55 per month) and the number of Russians living below the official poverty line passed 40%. GNP in 1997 had been $422.000 million. In 1998 it scarcely reached $132 000 million, a fall of 74%. • Share prices fell 90% in a year. The rouble fell 75%. Inflation shot up. In the face of financial and monetary collapse the Russians resorted to barter. The teachers in Voronezh were paid their salaries in tomb stones. The ‘transition’ was a catastrophic process without any palliative. In the 90’s the direction of globalisation directed by the IMF-World Bank tandem led to the conversion of the Second World (the old Soviet bloc) to the Third World, with the greatest and fastest increase in poverty registered in history, from 14 million to 170 million in less than four years. The hyperdepression generated a veritable demographic disaster, unprecedented in times of peace. An average of a million Russians a year were wiped off the demographic statistics from 1991 until the middle of the first decade of XXI Century. The Russian demographic tragedy Graph 2. What was to blame, in any case, was not Yeltsin’s rapid liberalisation and the shock therapies of the IMF and other neoliberal agencies (G7), but the nature of the soviet system itself which caused its collapse and subsequent depression. The rapid liberalisation led to greater ills being avoided. The USSR had demonstrated its great capacity for recuperation from disaster on various occasions (1917-21 and 1940-45). In addition other centrally planned economies evolved into capitalist markets without creating a depression. What caused the hyperdepression was the unbridled greed and short-termism of neoliberalism which directed and planned the famous shock therapies. Washington was always in the know about about the most serious criminal activities.. Clinton allowed the Wall Street financiers to direct American policy with respect to the capitalist transition of the former Soviet bloc. The standard bearer of the whole operation was the ‘Russian Privatization Center’ which had close links to Harvard University. The centre received funds and loans from the US Treasury, the IMF, the European Bank of Reconstruction and development, the European Union, Germany and Japan which totalled over $400 000 million. The Clinton and Gore administration did not hesitate to hush up the scandals, criminal conspiracies, frauds, robberies and money laundering in their own back yard - the Bank of New York was used to launder money for Russian organised crime - ignoring CIA information which reported the situation, alleging the fear of a communist opposition to Yeltsin. All the information of corruption, fraud and penetration of organised crime were disregarded and the IMF and the US Treasury continued supporting and enriching the new Russian ‘capitalists’, that is to say the mafia, and large-scale corruption continued with the increasing bubble. Those principally responsible for American policy towards the transition were Vice-President Al Gore and the then Treasury functionary and now high economic advisor to Obama and inventor of the ‘Bad Bank’, Lawrence Summers. These two referred to the notorious and corrupt oligarchs Boris Nemtsov and A. Chubais (their intimate personal friends) unblushingly as the ‘economic dream team’ of Russia. 3 The escalation of organised crime together with galloping corruption. Was this due to the Soviet heritage? During the Soviet period there did exist organised mafias which supplied illegal imported goods to the nomenclature. Their role and importance was, however, absolutely marginal. The normal nexus between the economic, social and political breakdown and the advance of organised crime was increased by lightening privatisations and the dismantling of structures which protected public property without any alternative being substituted which would protect private property and contracts. The alternative to the institutional vacuum and the lack of security and judicial control was to look for protection and support from organised crime which evolved ‘spontaneously’ to become the principal support of the new private capitalist economy, the defender of dubiously acquired private property and the shadow guarantor of the validity of financial and commercial contracts. Organised crime became institutionalised as the only structure capable of dictating and enforcing the basic rules necessary to reduce uncertainty in the trade and business of the new capitalist order. This situation has not changed substantially. A certain natural evolution in the ways of extracting income by increasing the range and sophistication of extortion methods has taken place. In 2009 Russia suffered the consequences of the financial crash of 2008 resulting in a fall of GNP of 8%. The ‘official’ crime figures recorded an escalation of crimes (the Ministry of the Interior reported the commission of 492 000 economic crimes, an increase of receiving bribes of 13% in relation to the previous year and losses of $33.000 million as a result of these crimes). Price Waterhouse Coopers, the external auditor, concluded that Russia led the ranking in economic crime (a category which included uncompensated appropriation, accounting fraud, corruption, money laundering, tax fraud, price manipulations and cartels). According to the audit at least 71% of Russian businesses had suffered some sort of criminal attention from the kryshka ( ‘the roof’, a euphemism for the protection offered by organised crime, a figure which was 13% higher than in 2007) with a notable return to more violent methods of extortion. 4. These countries have crossed over from the shadow of an authoritarian centrally planned economy to a virtuous democratic system of free enterprise in which consumer demand governs the supply beneath the rule of law and in which wages and income are fixed by negotiation in accordance with the law of supply and demand. The virtue of the new neoliberal system was based on an unequal redistribution of the income and wealth on an enormous scale. Multimillionaires sprung up like mushrooms whilst the hyperdepression (a drop of GNP between 1991-1995 of 34% and 70% in 1998) led to mass pauperisation and an unprecedented social crisis (accompanied by an accelerated gap between rich and poor). Crime figures and murders doubled whilst life expectancy dropped by 5 years. By the end of 1992 40% of the pensioners were receiving less than half the subsistence level. After the debacle of the 90’s economic recovery did not bring with it political or economic liberalisation but in fact the opposite. The gagging of the media Russia is the third most dangerous country in the world for journalists (after Iraq and Algeria). Putin dominated all the TV channels and the great majority of the newspapers. Only the internet escaped but the FSB are working hard to establish control of the net. 85% of Russians report that the television is their main source of information. At the beginning of his term of office Putin clashed with Boris Berezovsky and seized control of ORT (the chain with the largest audience) converting it into his largest mouthpiece (Channel One). He then forced the oligarch Vladimir Gusinski to abandon the country placing his TV chain (NTV) in the hands of Gazprom. In 2003 Putin dominated or completely controlled the media and the ‘news’ was changed into something similar to the propaganda of Franco’s NODOS. Russian TV does not reflect reality or spontaneity (all programmes and shows are censored and there is no live coverage) but creates a disconnected parallel universe. The Kommerzant newspaper (the property of Berezovsky) maintained an independent point of view and was valued for its information on business and politics. The newspaper was bought by an affiliate of Gazprom in 2006. Izvestiya had already been bought by Gazprom in 2005 and stopped informing the public, turning into a trashy tabloid. Other publications absorbed by the Putin clan are Nevavisimaya gazeta, Novye Izvestiya, Moskovskiye novosti, Segodnya, Itogi, Obschaya Gazeta, Komsomolskaya Pravda… The few publications remaining outside the Putin orbit are regional papers or very small. In the internet the Putin clan is rapidly regaining lost ground. Live Journal, the American server which hosts the most popular blogs among the 300 000 Russian bloggers, was acquired in 2006 by Anton Nosik, a wealthy capitalist residing in the USA with close links to the Kremlin. In February 2008 the ‘law of communication media’ was passed that tried to muzzle the internet. In April 2008 an even more restrictive law was passed reinforcing the previous legislation. At the end of 2008 Rinet the best known and oldest Russian server, used by many dissident bloggers, was forced to close following the persecution by the secret police that seized all the servers in order to investigate them. Trades Unions? The ‘official’ unions are similar to the old Francoist vertical unions. They play a client role, subordinate to the clan or Financial-Industrial Group to which they belong and act as distributors of the profits made by the FIG’s. The cowardice of the official unions is so great that over the last few years new alternative unions have emerged and developed (funded only by members) which have become relatively strongly entrenched amongst miners, port workers steel workers and workers in the multinationals, in spite of repeated cases of reprisals, torture and assassinations carried out by gunmen contracted by the bosses. These ‘free’ unions attack the anti-labour legislation (fruit of successive neoliberal ‘labour reforms’) which allow little margin for protest and organisation and have organised illegal strikes against multinationals, Nestle, Leroy Merlin (megastores), and against RUSAL (the largest aluminium producer in the world in the hands of the oligarch Oleg Deripaska), obtaining considerable wage rises. 5 Criminality has been reducing over time. The oligarchs and kleptocrats who looted and appropriated the soviet patrimony have been transformed, in the same way as the robber barons John Rockefeller and JP Morgan, into first class entrepreneurial businessmen, true motors of westernisation. The crime and corruption figures have not dropped at all during the 20 years following the beginning of the transition but completely the opposite. Corruption and crime have become wedded to Russian capitalism (some writers in Wikipedia refer to the Russian federation as a mafia state). The endemic and institutionalised corruption in the Russian education system from kindergarten to the top universities is a thermometer adjusted to the global criminal corruption which envelopes Russian society. The oligarchs and new rich send their children to study abroad. Private education institutes in Britain and Switzerland, at all educational levels, receive substantial fees from their welcome Russian clients. For the Russian on the street, however, the new capitalist education system is paid. Payment, however is not confined to registration fees and education-related costs but bribery of all types is the norm. The system of ‘informal ‘payments is generalised in all areas. For the students, the normality of bribery prepares them for a society in which bribery and corruption reign. Families pay between $2000 and $4000 in bribes to get their children into kindergartens (demand exceeds supply and there are waiting lists for over three years). In order to study in the nearest schools, to get good marks, to pass the course, to get university entrance (to get a good mark costs between $3 500 and $5 500), to be able to get into a good university, to be able ‘repeat’ an examination (the poorly paid teachers set difficult exams to oblige their pupils to repeat in order to get an informal supplement which enables them to subsist. In an article in The Guardian at the end of 2010, referring to telegrams about Russia published by Wikileaks, the following characteristics of the functioning of the state are described The Russian spies use the services of mafia bosses to facilitate arms dealing. The police, the spy agencies and the prosecutors control and operate extortion rings to ‘protect’ their clients (businessmen, politicians, gangsters…) in return for juicy premiums. Bribes work as a parallel tax flow and are channelled directly into the pockets of the police and the security services (FSB). Investigators of the Russian mafias in Spain have compiled an extensive list of Russian prosecutors, military and politicians implicated in the networks of organised crime. To avoid military service, register a new company, buy an apartment, get a school or university place, pass an exam, be declared innocent of criminal charges be they valid or false, receive medical treatment… all require bribes. The plague of bribes is endemic, inflating the cost of transactions by up to 50% from buying arms to constructing a motorway. With time, what has happened is not the decriminalising of the Russian society and economy, but on one hand the forced adaptation to the system on the part of the businessmen, workers, clients and suppliers, which makes them accustomed to operate in an environment of crime and corruption (adapt or die), and on the other hand a natural evolution and sophistication of corrupt criminal practices. There is no dual system (with a dominant formal economy versus a residual informal economy) but both sectors connive and intermingle with a profound predominance and preponderance of crime, and ‘formality ‘ or ‘normality’ is a mere façade. In fact organised crime offers businessmen a wide range of services: protection from extortion by other groups, defence from legal harassment by corrupt state agencies, protection of property, payment of debts, help with Customs, risk assessments by banking services controlled by the mafia (these banks are very useful in obtaining information for criminal enterprises - transfers and credit cards- and are crucial for transferring money or money laundering. Russia lies at the lower end of the 22 countries evaluated in the Transparency International Bribe Payers Index and in a position lower than China. The TIBPI index tries to measure corporate corruption in place of public corruption which is measured in Corruption Perception Index on a global scale, and which in 2010 placed Russia at number 154 of the 178 countries with a figure of 2,1 on a scale of 1 to 10. The old countries of the Soviet Union have been converted into economies with large middle classes advancing rapidly towards the status of developed western economies. According to Medvedev, the middle classes are the key instrument in the objective of modernising the politics and economics of Russia. According to a study by Rosgosstrakh (a public insurance company) in 2007, the group which registered the largest increase in income were those who earned between $125 000 and $250 000 per year. There were 200 000 households (0,37% of the total) with annual incomes of over a million dollars. Only 6,7% of Russians earn over $930 a year. The average per capita income is $279 and the average wage is $420 (the average agricultural wage is under $190 and that of teachers is $273) therefore even at the decisive moment of economic recovery the number of possible members of the middle class was extremely small. The per capita statistics do not include any reference to inequality, mortality, illness, the tremendous environmental degradation, the deterioration of infrastructure and public services. The rich live in exclusive neighbourhoods protected by electrified fences (like Rublyovo-Unpenskove Road, on the outskirts of Moscow) although the great majority of their most favoured gated communities lie outside of Russia. This new capitalist class feels insecure in its own country. It has its families living in London or Paris, its children studying at Oxford or Cambridge and its money in Switzerland or the Cayman Islands. Economic growth has been and will continue to be enormously disproportionately in favour of the super-rich. In neoliberal circumstances, as is occurring in the USA and the EU, the middle classes are a sector in danger of extinction.


Financial Times. 10/02/2010: "Si los países europeos "periféricos" eligen una aproximación keynesiana para salir de la crisis, serán masacrados por los mercados."

La trampa Moneda-Crecimiento-Deuda en España


España está pillada de lleno en lo que los economistas llaman la trampa "moneda-crecimiento-deuda”, un fenómeno que ya empieza a ser un clásico de la globalización financiera.

Familias, empresas y estados son tentados con el señuelo engañoso de condiciones inmejorables de financiación. Se organizan explosivas burbujas financieras aquí y allá con booms espectaculares de las bolsas donde unos pocos iniciados obtienen ganancias espectaculares. Cuando las burbujas estallan el FMI se encarga de proteger la retirada a tiempo de los principales agentes que incluso sacan buenos réditos especulando a la baja.

La hoja de ruta empezó tras la crisis del petróleo poniendo en la mesa de juego los petrodólares reciclados y los fondos de pensiones. Los países en desarrollo se convirtieron de golpe en países "emergentes" y empezaron a sucederse burbujas por todo el planeta dejando una estela de miseria y perplejidad tras los ineludibles cracs. Finalmente han sido los propios países desarrollados los que han acabado siendo pasto de la globalización financiera.


España abandonó su moneda y cedió su instrumental de política monetaria al Banco Central Europeo. Desde el 2002 el euro sustituyó totalmente a la peseta. La fortaleza del euro ha ido en detrimento de la capacidad exportadora española, sin embargo la confianza en la estabilidad monetaria y los bajos tipos de interés en la zona generaron una entrada neta de capitales en el tropel especulativo inmobiliario de la última burbuja que revitalizaron el crecimiento del PIB al tiempo que aumentaba el déficit comercial y se disparaba endeudamiento exterior hasta cotas estratosféricas.



El equivalente a la caída de las exportaciones (materias primas) argentinas a finales de los 90 ha sido en España el batacazo inmobiliario, la depresión y la caída subsiguiente de los ingresos por turismo. Como en Argentina, el endeudamiento privado (banca, inmobiliarias) se está convirtiendo en público. Como en el caso argentino los inversores están ya formando enjambres, virtuales nubes de langostas, especulando con una posible bancarrota española. La Comisión y el FMI, al servicio de la banca acreedora centroeuropea, han tomado el mando y están condicionado el mantenimiento del suministro del suero crediticio para mantener con vida a la torpedeada economía española a una "devaluación interna" (drásticos recortes del gasto público, devaluación del sistema de pensiones, devaluación de la seguridad social y de la sanidad pública, devaluación de la educación pública, anorexia del sector público y dosis letales de flexibilización laboral, ...).

Países entrampados

Tal como viene operando la trampa MCD, mientras se mantenga inamovible el cerrojo monetario (la permanencia en el €), decrecimiento y endeudamiento se retroalimentan. La vuelta al equilibrio es imposible. La magnitud de la crisis global ha precipitado hacia la trampa a diversos países europeos de la zona euro (PIIGS) y amenaza muchos más. Grecia, el peón a sacrificar, está sirviendo de conejillo de indias para experimentar una medicina cuyos efectos secundarios podrían afectar la continuidad del euro en su conjunto. El paciente principal sin embargo, en la salita de espera, es España. Las desreguladas instituciones financieras siguen amplificando la magnitud de las crisis apostando a la baja en macro operaciones encubiertas fuera de todo control.

Se trata de una espiral en la que los inversores se lanzan sobre los bonos de los países centrales (Alemania, Francia, Holanda, ...) huyendo de la comprometida deuda de los países de la periferia que ven como se disparan sus costes financieros hasta niveles inaceptables que no hacen más que empeorar su ya difícil situación financiera.

Las multinacionales empiezan a contemplar la alternativa de una euro-Europa reducida a los pocos países que aún sean capaces de mantenerse en la ratio déficit/PIB permitida.


Todo apunta a que con un endeudamiento (privado + público) de merecido podium mundial, un sistema financiero plagado de cajas zombi en la UVI pública, cerca de 5 millones de parados y la economía sumergiéndose en picado, la "devaluación interna" se traduzca, como en el caso argentino, en menos demanda, menos consumo y menos ingresos por impuestos. A medida que vayan venciendo los términos de las obligaciones privadas (bancos y cajas) y públicas (estado, autonomías) y con "los mercados" huyendo de cualquier clase de papel ibérico, las desfondadas administraciones central y autonómicas no tendrán otra manera de seguir pagando sus gastos corrientes que emitiendo monedas ad-hoc como en la época de la guerra civil. Los “patacones” de Buenos Aires podrían muy bien traducirse en “barcinones” para una de las nuevas veguerías proyectadas en la hiper-endeudada Cataluña.

El corralito español


La expulsión de los PIIGS de la zona euro seguramente se producirá por sorpresa y de forma conjunta pare evitar un pánico bancario. El factor sorpresa (sin previo aviso excepto para los ricos con buenos contactos) es clave en una operación de este tipo. Un día nos levantaremos de la cama con la noticia de que a última hora del día anterior el euro dejó de ser la moneda del Reino de España y los depósitos bancarios quedarán bloqueados para convertirse en pesetas al cambio que decidan las autoridades. En un santiamén el valor de los ahorros de los incautos depositantes sufrirá un recorte drástico e irrecuperable.

España, de vuelta al subdesarrollo


Argentina se libró finalmente de la trampa porqué renunció a la paridad con el dólar (equivalente a salir del €) y se declaró en suspensión de pagos, introdujo controles sobre las salida de capitales, elevó los impuestos sobre las exportaciones y el sector financiero y la burbuja inmobiliaria relanzó la demanda mundial de materias primas. No parece que vaya a ser este el caso para España a medida que se profundiza y generaliza la Depresión Permanente. La recuperación de la experiencia traumática argentina no tendrá un equivalente a corto o medio plazo en la península Ibérica.


Los estados desfondados por los rescates de la crisis bancaria y el descalabro económico subsiguiente se ven sometidos ahora al chantaje financiero de la economía casino. Se trata de una estrategia de choque para imponer drásticos programas de desmantelamiento en pública subasta del Estado social de un amplitud aún no vista en el norte desarrollado. Se trata de convertir a los PIIGS y a los países del Este europeo en economías "de peaje" donde habrá que pagar por usar una carretera, ir al CAP, llevar los hijos al cole o tener vigilancia en tu calle. Una estrategia capitalista de choque que se va a imponer implacablemente en tanto no encuentre una respuesta socialista de choque.

La trampa Moneda-Crecimiento-Deuda en Argentina


Durante los años 90 Argentina, el alumno más fiel y mimado del FMI, experimentaba un "milagro económico". Los inversores extranjeros invirtieron miles de millones de dólares en el país, la inflación era inferior a la de los EEUU y el país registraba uno de los crecimientos más altos de América Latina.

En dos años la economía argentina se hundió. La crisis afectó a todos los niveles de la sociedad con una pauperación en masa relámpago.


Cronología


1989. Menem es elegido presidente y nombra a Domingo Carvallo como ministro de economía. Se lanza un programa de ajuste estructural que incluye una reforma impositiva en favor de los ricos, la privatización de lo mejor del sector público, liberalización del comercio exterior, desregulación en todos los ámbitos y una paridad fija del peso argentino respecto al dólar.

1 de abril de 1991. El Congreso argentino aprueba la Ley de Convertibilidad garantizando la conversión peso-dólar de 1 a 1. Cada peso en circulación estaría basado en un dólar y la política monetaria quedaba supeditada a esta ley.

1991-1994. Argentina registra un fuerte crecimiento económico.

1995. La crisis financiera mexicana y la devaluación de diciembre de 1994 del peso mexicano lleva a un pánico financiero y una retirada masiva de fondos de los países emergentes (efecto Tequila). El PIB argentino cae (- 2,8%)

1996-97. Argentina vuelve a crecer expectacularmente (5,5% en 1996, 8,1% en 1997) pero el déficit comercial y el endeudamiento se disparan.

1998. En la estela de la crisis asiática de 1997, crisis financiera en Rusia y Brasil. Argentina entra en recesión en el tercer cuatrimestre. El paro se dispara.

Enero de 1999. Brasil devalúa su moneda afectando de lleno a las exportaciones argentinas (la exportación a su vecino representa más del 30%)

Septiembre de 1999. El Congreso argentino aprueba la Ley de Responsabilidad Fiscal, que plantea una gran reducción del gasto público, tanto a nivel federal como provincial.

Diciembre de 1999. De la Rua pide ayuda al FMI.

Marzo de 2000. El FMI acuerda la concesión de un préstamo de 7,200 millones de $ condicionado a un estricto ajuste fiscal.

10 de mayo de 2000. El FMI recomienda un recorte drástico del gasto público. El gobierno anuncia un recorte del gasto público de mil millones de dólares con la esperanza de que la "responsabilidad fiscal" devolverá la confianza de los inversores. El ajuste consiste principalmente en recortes y retrasos en las pensiones y en los sueldos de los funcionarios y la anulación de los subsidios por desempleo. El PIB del 2000 cae un 5%.

Muchos analistas atribuyen la severidad de la crisis a que el gobierno, aleccionado por el FMI, evitó abandonar la paridad con el dólar hasta que ya fue demasiado tarde.

Marzo de 2001. Domingo Cavallo, el ministro de Menem que diseñó la paridad con el dólar, vuelve a ocupar la cartera de economía. Se procede a una reestructuración de la deuda externa cambiando deuda a corto por deuda a largo a interés más alto. Cavallo no duda en saquear el fondo de pensiones públicas para pagar un vencimiento de 3.500 millones de deuda.

Julio de 2001. Cavallo anuncia un plan de déficit cero. Los sindicatos convocan una huelga general. El congreso aprueba la "Ley de déficit cero" y el FMI acuerda un nuevo préstamo que desaparece casi inmediatamente fugándose hacia paraísos fiscales.

Octubre de 1001. Los inversores se niegan a refinanciar la deuda pública. Las administraciones locales y el mismo gobierno central empiezan a emitir pseudo-moneda (Lecop, Patacones, Porteno, Quebracho, ....). Se trata de títulos de deuda pública emitidos a nominales pequeños que se usan para pagar a los funcionarios y para las transacciones corrientes.

Noviembre de 2001. Argentina propone una nueva reestructuración de su deuda que implica en realidad una suspensión de pagos. Retiradas masivas de depósitos de los bancos. Las reservas en el Banco Central disminuyen en 2.000 millones en un solo día. De la Rua impone la limitación de retirar un máximo de 1000 $ al mes (corralito).

Diciembre de 2001. El día 5 de diciembre el FMI se niega a acordar un préstamo al gobierno con lo que ya no puede hacer frente a sus obligaciones y Argentina se declaró en bancarrota el día 7. El paro llegaba al 18%. Los sindicatos declaran la 8ª huelga general desde 1999 para el día 13. Asaltos a supermercados. Continuos levantamientos populares en muchas ciudades (28 muertos). El gobierno declaró el Estado de Sitio. Domingo Cavallo dimitió. La crisis política acabó con tres presidente en un mes. El FOREX cerró durante tres semanas.

Los efectos de la trampa MCD


Técnicamente los economistas afirman que la economía argentina estaba deslizándose hacia una trampa "Moneda-Crecimiento-Deuda" a finales de los 90. El tipo de cambio sobrevaluado impide las exportaciones, la economía se estanca. Si Argentina abandonara la paridad con respecto al dólar sufriría represalias financieras con retiradas masivas de fondos. La caída del PIB provoca el crecimiento de la deuda. Si se reduce el gasto público para disminuir la deuda se frena más el crecimiento. Es como un inestable taburete de tres patas; recortas una para equilibrarlo y se desequilibra por el otro lado.

El boom de la economía argentina


La relación fija entre el peso y el $ favoreció la entrada de capital extranjero. El PIB aumentó (de una media del - 0,7% entre 1980-1990 a un media del 4,7% entre 1991-99). La inflación quedó contenida (4% a partir de 1994, 1% a partir de 1996) y se produjo una notable caída de los tipos de interés internos que, no obstante, siguieron siendo mayores que los intenacionales, atrayendo así entradas de fondos (entre 1994-2000, LIBOR 5-6%, tipo de interés argentino 8-12%).

La apertura financiera fue total tras la supresión de las restricciones a la movilidad del capital y la supresión de las restricciones a la penetración de la banca extranjera. Se permitió la libre emisión bancaria de títulos negociables en moneda extranjera, supresión de las trabas a la entrada de capital extranjero en compañías de seguros y fondos de pensiones. La masiva privatización de empresas estatales (el gobierno ingresó 16,000 millones de $ entre 1991 y 1998) y la misma liberalización del sistema financiero favoreció la entrada de un considerable volumen de inversión directa atraída por las jugosas oportunidades a precios de saldo. La disparidad en los tipos de interés atrajo inversiones en cartera (aprovechar la revalorización de la bolsa y préstamos bancarios).

El régimen monetario y la apertura financiera explicarían no sólo la crisis sino también el crecimiento espectacular a partir de l991. Argentina se convirtió en el alumno predilecto del FMI, el mejor solista de la globalización bajo la experta batuta del FMI.

Las entradas netas de capital pasaron de un montante de 6.402 millones de $ en 1992 a 10.449 millones en 1998. La financiación externa neta pasó del -3,1% del PIB en 1990 al 2,1% del PIB en 1995 y al 5,9% en 1998. Estas entradas de capital ( 170.000 millones entre 1992 y 1998) contribuyeron a la revalorización de la moneda argentina y a la acumulación de deuda externa (61.337 millones de $ en 1991 - un 26% del PIB - , 141.371 millones de $ en 1998 - un 51,1% del PIB - ).

El crac de la economía argentina


El deterioro de la competitividad comercial debido a la apreciación de la moneda junto con el descenso del precio de las materias primas (en 1999, el 68,3$ de las exportaciones argentinas eran materias primas y derivados) hizo entrar la economía en recesión mientras se disparaba el déficit de la balanza por cuenta corriente (exportaciones menos importaciones y pagos por intereses).


El parón del crecimiento, el desequilibrio en la balanza de pagos y el aumento de la deuda externa provocaron la desconfianza de los inversores. Como en el caso de la crisis asiática, un enjambre cada vez más voluminoso de inversores empezaron a apostar por la quiebra del Estado Argentino mientras que se producía una fuerte fuga de capitales y se hacía imposible refinanciar la deuda externa. La suspensión de pagos estaba cantada. Falto de ingresos el gobierno y las administraciones locales se vieron en la necesidad de emitir pseudo-moneda para pagar sus gastos corrientes y los sueldos de sus funcionarios. (Patacones en Buenos Aires, Lecor en Córdoba, Petrom en Mendoza, ...)

Los recortes del gasto público y las medidas de flexibilizacion laboral (Ley de responsabilidad fiscal y Ley de déficit cero, ...) no hicieron más que acentuar la recesión aumentando el paro y disminuyendo los ingresos fiscales. El PIB acumulaba una caída del 10% a finales del 2002.

El corralito argentino


Cuando finalmente se declaró la suspensión de pagos el pánico se apoderó de los depositantes previendo un cambio en la política monetaria y se lanzaron en tropel a sacar sus depósitos en dólares de los bancos (unos bancos que, como en el caso español, estaban teóricamente bien supervisados y capitalizados). El gobierno declaró “el corralito” (máximo 250 $/semana) para evitar la fuga de capitales. Finalmente se abandonaría la paridad con el dólar dejando flotar al peso que a las pocas semanas cotizaba a 2,4 pesos/dólar. Los pequeños ahorradores experimentaron una masiva destrucción de sus derechos de propiedad al ser obligados a convertir sus secuestrados depósitos en dólares a pesos devaluados.

La recuperación


Cuando Kirchner ganó las elecciones a la presidencia en 2003, heredaba un país devastado. Reunió a los acreedores del país y les propuso pagar solamente entre un 25 y un 30% de lo adeudado. O aceptaban reestructurar la deuda según estas condiciones o seguirían sin cobrar un dólar. A regañadientes los tenedores de bonos argentinos, después de patalear en las oficinas del FMI, acabaron doblegándose a la propuesta. Esto permitió dedicar fondos a la recuperación económica. Se introdujo controles sobre las salida de capitales y se elevaron los impuestos sobre las exportaciones y el sector financiero. El PIB argentino, que había caído un 10% en 2002, recuperó un 8% en 2003. Argentina fue tachada como indeseable por los mercados financieros internacionales, sin embargo a partir de este momento empezó una recuperación económica que le permitió pagar sin atosigamiento la totalidad de su deuda al FMI en 2005 (y el espaldarazo financiero que representó la compra por parte de Venezuela de 2.400 millones de dólares en bonos argentinos). Según la CEPAL, entre 2002 y 2009 la tasa de pobreza cayó desde el 45% al 11%.

Argentina creció a un ritmo del 10% anual desde 2004 a 2008 aprovechando la subida del precio mundial de las materias primas, pero una razón fundamental del crecimiento fue que los recursos financieros fueron invertidos en la economía en lugar de pagar los servicios de la deuda. El peso argentino quedó desligado del dólar. Se establecieron controles sobre los precios internos, tasas sobre las importaciones y exportaciones, topes sobre los beneficios de las empresas, crecimiento en el gasto público, etc. Se rechazó de plano la entrada en la Zona de Libre Cambio de las Américas, impulsada por Washington y que hubiera precipitado a las economías sudamericanas hacia el abismo criminal en el que se devana el fallido estado de México tras su pertenencia a la zona de librecambio con EEUU y Canadá.

Epílogo: Los Fondos Buitre sobrevuelan Argentina


Argentina paso de ser el mejor alumno del neoliberalismo a ser la bestia negra que fomenta los "default" (suspensiones de pagos soberanas), los controles de capitales, las empresas dirigidas por los propios trabajadores, ...

Pero los mercados difícilmente sueltan prenda. Hay fondos de inversión especializados en la carroña (vulture funds), que husmean tras las suspensiones de pagos y las quiebras para adquirir, a precios de saldo, los bonos de deuda de los quebrados. Su recompensa está en la paciencia (y el acierto) con la que esperan que la sangre vuelva a fluir por las venas de los cadáveres para llevarlos de inmediato a los tribunales exigiendo la devolución del nominal que figura en sus polvorientos títulos.

En el caso argentino, el fondo hedge carroñero NML (con base en las islas Caymán y subsidiario de Elliott Associates, un vulture fund norteamericano famoso por cuadruplicar su inversión ganando un caso contra la deuda de Perú en los 90) hace años que litiga contra Argentina por un enorme paquete de bonos de deuda que adquirió por la mitad del nominal. NML se apoya en un lobby norteamericano – American Tassk Force Argentina – que presiona para que se tomen represalias contra Argentina por no pagar a los carroñeros.


Nordelta, multinacionales y materias primas

Pero Argentina ya no es lo que era. "La recuperación" ha ido en beneficio de los cada vez más ricos que han decidido irse a vivir a Nordelta, una ciudad segura, privado-vigilada, vallada y alambrada, con campos de golf exclusivos y puertos deportivos, con escuelas y hospitales de lujo, ciudad de ensueño exclusiva para ricos evasores fiscales que se expatrian de la Argentina que explotan y sólo pagan contribuciones a su nueva patria privada.

Las desigualdad social sigue siendo un lastre. Más del 36% de la población activa trabaja en el sector informal y la economía ha continuado concentrándose en manos de unas pocas compañías transnacionales. El cultivo de soja transgénica (18 millones de Ha, más de la mitad de la superficie cultivada del país), está en manos de unas pocas empresas agroindustriales y la mayoría de los grandes servicios públicos siguen en manos de los monopolios privados transnacionales que se los apropiaron, a precios de saldo, en la época de Menem. La economía argentina depende demasiado de la exportación de materias primas, un sector sometido enteramente a la especulación financiera que podría estallar muy pronto (la base de la pirámide especulativa ha sido el impresionante plan de obras públicas lanzado por China para combatir la recesión, plan que, a todas luces grandioso, no va a conseguir sacar al conjunto del planeta de la Depresión Permanente.

Links:

Tom Lewis: Argentina's revolt

A. de la Torre, ... : Argentina's Financial Crisis. EL Yeyati, SL Schmukler - unpublished, World Bank, 2002 - econ.umn.edu

Pablo Bustelo: Los orígenes de la crisis financiera de Argentina. Una comparación con las crisis asiáticas. (pdf en internet)